KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI, US — Marking a second consecutive year of extraordinary weakness, shares of publicly traded grain-based foods companies tumbled in 2024. The double-digit decline in market value left the food sector falling ever further behind in market performance, measured against key market indices.

For the year, the Grain-Based Foods Share (GBF) Index, as calculated by Milling & Baking News, a sister publication of World Grain, closed at 28,141.82, down 3,669 points, or 12%, from 31,810.75 at the end of 2023. The 3,669-point drop was the largest ever for the index, and the 12% decline was the largest since 2008 and the third largest since 1994, eclipsed only by drops of 22% in 2008 and 28% in 1999.

Making the GBF index performance even uglier in 2024 was a comparison to the strong showing by broader market indices, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, up 13%; the Nasdaq Composite Index, up 33%; and the S&P 500 index, up 23%. The overall stock market was propelled upward in 2024 by strength in the US economy, interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and expectations of further rate cuts in 2025.

Unusually, the GBF index was down for two straight years, with the 12% drop in 2024 preceded by a 7% drop in 2023 — the first back-to-back drop since a decline of 1.4% in 1998 was followed by a 28% slump in 1999. The market underperformance relative to the S&P 500 was a gaping 35 percentage points. On a two-year basis, the GBF index lagged the S&P 500 by 70 percentage points; on a three-year basis, by 34 points; over the past five years, by 77 points; and over the past 10 years, by 147 percentage points.

The years of underperformance stand in marked contrast to how the GBF index did earlier in the current century. Between 2000 and 2004, the GBF index outperformed the S&P 500 in four of five years. Between 2000 and 2016, the GBF index underperformed the S&P only six times.

The GBF index also underperformed in 2024 relative to each sector of the S&P 500, including consumer staples.

The 12% decline in the GBF index compared with increases of 28% in financials, 34% in communication services shares, 26% in consumer discretionary, 9% in consumer staples, 1% in energy, 1% in health care, 16% in industrials, 1% in real estate, 22% in technology and 20% in industrials in the S&P 500. The only S&P sector to sustain a decline in share values last year was materials, down 2%, still a better result than the GBF index.

The outperformance of the S&P consumer staples relative to the GBF index in 2024 reflected the presence in the sector of several retail businesses that performed well last year, including Walmart Inc., up 72%; Costco Wholesale Corp., up 45%; and The Kroger Co., up 34%. Tobacco stocks also did well, with Altria Group Inc. up 29% and Philip Morris International up 28%. Consumer packaged goods companies without large exposure to packaged foods did well last year, too, including Procter & Gamble Co., Clorox Co. and Church & Dwight Co.

Only 5 of the 24 companies in the GBF index posted advances in 2024, the worst performance in memory.

The top two performers in 2024 offered validation to the spinoffs conducted by The Kellogg Co. in 2023. Shares of Kellanova surged 45% last year, the best-performing stock in the GBF index. The snacks-centric business, based in Chicago, became the target in August of a $35.9 billion takeover bid by Mars, Inc. Under terms of the acquisition, which remains subject to regulatory approval, Kellanova shareholders would be paid $83 per share for their stock, a small premium to the Dec. 31 closing price of $81.01 per share. The $83 price is 49% higher than the price at which Kellanova began trading in August 2023 when the spinoff from Kellogg was completed.

Ranking second among grain-based foods companies in performance last year was Kellanova’s much smaller brother, WK Kellogg Co, Battle Creek, Mich. Without the benefit of a buyout bid, WK Kellogg shares jumped 37% in 2024, ending the year with a market capitalization of $1.55 billion. The company’s shares surged in May after the company announced sharply higher first-quarter earnings. After sinking in late spring, WK Kellogg’s stock price gradually edged upward during the second half of the year.

The third top performer in the GBF index last year was Post Holdings, Inc., St. Louis, with a 30% advance. The company’s shares fell 2% in 2023, which made it the fifth-best performer in the index, and rose 22% in 2022, which also was a fifth best ranking. Post endured some trauma in 2024, including the absence of its chief executive officer for a few months because of illness (Robert V. Vitale resumed his work in late January) and the discovery of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks at two of the third-party-contracted egg-laying facilities of the company’s Michael Foods subsidiary. A second outbreak was disclosed in December 2024. The company’s shares moved higher fairly steadily through the year, with an upward bump in late November after Post said fiscal 2024 earnings were up 17% for the year.

Shares of Ingredion, Inc., Westchester, Ill., rose 27% in 2024, the fourth-best performance in the index. The gain followed an 11% advance in 2023, which ranked second. Ingredion is the only company in the GBF index to have seen its stock price appreciate both in 2023 and 2024. While the company’s share price moved gradually higher through much of the year, it enjoyed a wide gain in early November when it released third-quarter adjusted earnings up 31% from the year before and raised its guidance for the full year.

The final company in the GBF index with a share price advance in 2024 was Lancaster Colony Corp., Westerville, Ohio. Its 4% gain last year compared with a drop of 16% in 2023, when the company’s share price performance ranked as the ninth worst. In 2022, the stock price rose 19% and in 2021 it fell 10%. Early in 2024, Lancaster Colony signed a new deal with Subway to offer the restaurant chain’s sandwich sauces. Later, Lancaster Colony credited new products for energizing its baked foods business.

The widest price decline in the GBF index in 2024 was sustained by MGP Ingredients, Inc., Atchison, Kan., whose shares plunged 60%. The steep drop followed a 7% setback in 2023, which was a middle-of-the-pack performance that year. MGPI shares rose 25% in 2022 and 81% in 2021. The company’s earnings were under pressure in fiscal 2023 and then into fiscal 2024, with its distillery business facing particular challenges. The year culminated with a December decision to change company leadership, with David Bratcher and Karen Seaberg stepping aside in their respective roles as CEO and chairman of the board.

Hain Celestial Group, Hoboken, NJ, which has struggled to gain its footing for several years, was once again among the weakest performers in 2024, slumping 44%. The drop followed a 32% decline in 2023, when Hain’s fall was the sharpest in the index, and a 62% slump in 2022, a second-from-the-bottom result that year. Since the end of 2021, Hain Celestial Group shares have dropped 86% in value. This past year, the company said at mid-year that it was embarking on a global stock-keeping unit (SKU) rationalization program to improve the performance of its portfolio, particularly paring back its personal care business. Supply chain issues in the company’s infant formula business also were a drag on results during the year.

Another struggling smaller consumer packaged foods company, B&G Foods, Parsippany, NJ, had the third-largest share price setback last year, down 34%. In 2023, B&G Foods shares were down 6%, but they plunged 64% in 2022, when the company’s stock price was the worst performer in the index. Late in 2024, the company’s top executive conceded that most of the B&G Foods portfolio “has been slower to recover than expected.”

“Consistent with the center-store packaged foods industry, we have not seen much improvement relative to the first half, with consumers adjusting their purchasing patterns in the wake of high food inflation,” Kenneth Keller, president and CEO of B&G Foods, said in a Nov. 5 call with analysts. No recovery was thought imminent in early 2025, the company said.

The fourth-widest share price decline in 2024 was sustained by Seaboard Corp., down 32%. The drop followed modest declines of 4% in 2023 and 5% in 2022. In 2021, the company’s shares were up 29%. Seaboard’s shares fell late in the year after the company announced a third-quarter loss of $149 million. Seaboard said its results were “impacted by a valuation allowance recorded on its US deferred tax assets of $176 million, with a corresponding charge to income tax expense.”

Among companies in the GBF index with larger market capitalizations, ADM had the steepest share price decline last year, down 30%. The drop extends a period of volatility for ADM’s stock price, including a decline of 22% in 2023 and a jump of 37% in 2022. In the latter year, ADM was the top performer in the GBF index. In 2021, ADM shares climbed by 34%.

In 2024, ADM’s share price experienced a sharp decline on Jan. 22 in reaction to a company announcement that Vikram Luthar, chief financial officer, had been placed on administrative leave amid an investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission into accounting practices in its nutrition segment. Pressure on the company’s core businesses weighed on ADM’s financial results over the course of the year.

The same operating pressures were evident at Bunge Global SA, St. Louis, which saw its share price decline 23% in 2024, the sixth-largest drop in the index. Bunge shares were up 1% in 2023, 7% in 2022 and 42% in 2021. In the first nine months of 2024, Bunge’s earnings were down 29% from the year before, on an adjusted basis. Processing results were down in the company’s Agribusiness segment, Bunge’s largest, in the third quarter.

Over the course of the year, Bunge prepared to move forward on its proposed $8.2 billion acquisition of Viterra, first announced in June 2023. In October 2024, however, Bunge said completion of the transaction may be delayed until 2025 as the company waits on key regulatory approvals.

Mondelez International, Inc. was the seventh-weakest performer in the GBF index in 2024, with an 18% share price decline. The ranking was unfamiliar territory for the Chicago-based snacks giant. In 2023, Mondelez was among few gainers in the index, with its shares rising 9%, the third-best performer. In 2022 and 2021, Mondelez shares climbed 1% and 13%, respectively. Soft through most of 2024, Mondelez shares fell more steeply late in the year when an anticipated break in the price of cocoa, a key ingredient for the company, failed to materialize.

Kraft Heinz Co., another Chicago-based CPG company, fell 17% in 2024, the eighth-widest decline. In 2023, Kraft Heinz shares dropped 9%. The year before, the company’s stock price performance was ninth best, with a 13% advance. In 2024, the company’s shares experienced an up-and-down year, with dips in the late winter, in the summer and then again in November. The latter drop followed the release of third-quarter financial results that included a $1.4 billion non-cash impairment charge mostly related to the lackluster performance of the Lunchables business. Other Kraft Heinz brands struggled, too, including Capri Sun, Mac & Cheese, Oscar Mayer and Spoonables.