-KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI, US — The final supply-and-demand report of the year from the US Department of Agriculture tends to offer more year-end recap than abrupt revelations, but the Dec. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report brought a few surprises for corn and soybean oil, with the wheat outlook mostly benign.
The USDA forecast the carryover of corn on Sept. 1, 2025, at 1.738 billion bushels, down 200 million bushels, or 10%, from 1.938 billion bushels projected in November, down 22 million bushels from 1.760 billion bushels estimated in 2024, and well below the range of pre-report trade expectations.
The sharp shift to the downside primarily was reflected in the large boost to projected exports. The Department pegged 2024-25 US corn exports at 2.475 billion bushels, up 150 million bushels from the prior month’s outlook of 2.325 billion bushels, and the highest export forecast since the 2020-21 marketing year. The USDA also raised its forecast for ethanol and byproducts usage to 5.500 billion bushels, up 50 million bushels from last month.
While the major dip in ending stocks caught many in the trade off guard, there was an expectation that the USDA would increase the export volume. Since September, US corn exports have been surging, with the pace of sales in the last few months tripling the typical five-year average pace, and with Mexico again emerging as the top buyer to date. In 2023-24, Mexico imported a record 24.5 million tonnes of US corn, approximately 40% of all US corn exports during that period, according to data compiled by the USDA.
“Mexico is frontloading corn imports here — that’s certainly part of it,” said Brian Harris, executive director and co-owner of Global Risk Management, indicating a rush to secure supplies ahead of the transition to a potentially tariff-laden Trump administration.
Exports of US soybean oil also have experienced a significant upswing in 2024, largely due to the spike in palm oil prices, which leapt to two-year highs on concerns of reduced output related to weather impacts and higher domestic usage anticipated in top-producer Indonesia.
“Palm oil had been trading at a premium to soybean oil on the world market,” Harris said. “If you’re a global buyer, you’re not going to buy a lower grade oil like palm when you can buy a higher-grade soybean oil at a discount.”
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Currently palm oil is at about a $160-per-tonne premium to soybean oil, compared to a $75 to $100 discount typically at this time of year.
Within the first month of the marketing year that began Oct. 1, US soybean oil exports had reached about 85% of the prior USDA forecast of 600 million pounds. In its December WASDE, the USDA nearly doubled that outlook, raising it 83% to 1.100 billion pounds. The USDA forecast the carryover of soybean oil on Oct. 1, 2025, at 1.506 billion pounds, down 30 million pounds, or 2%, from November.
An anticipated 270-million-pound increase in 2024-25 US soybean oil production, along with a 200-million-pound decrease for domestic food, feed and other industrial usage, helped adjust the balance sheet to make room for the large shift in exports. Use of soybean oil for the manufacture of biofuel was unchanged from November at 14 billion pounds, up 8% from 12.989 billion pounds in 2023-24.
The USDA left its carryover for soybeans on Sept. 1, 2025, unchanged at 470 million bushels, with 2024-25 forecasts of crushings and exports also unchanged. The average price of soybeans paid to farmers in 2024-25 was forecast at $10.20 per bushel, down 60¢ from November and down $2.20, or 18%, from 2023-24.
There were no major surprises for wheat in the December WASDE. The USDA projected US all-wheat ending stocks on June 1, 2025, at 795 million bushels, down 20 million bushels, or 2.5%, from the November projection but up 99 million bushels, or 14%, from 696 million bushels in 2024. The adjustment reflected a 25-million-bushel increase in expected exports partly offset by a 5-million-bushel increase in imported wheat. Exports were projected up 143 million bushels, or 20%, from 2024.
Export projections were raised 5 million bushels apiece for hard red spring (to 270 million bushels) and soft red winter (to 125 million bushels) and raised 15 million bushels in the case of white wheat to 210 million bushels. The jump in white wheat exports was on “stronger-than-expected sales and shipments to East Asian markets,” the USDA said.
World wheat carryover for 2024-25 was projected at 257.88 million tonnes, up fractionally from the November projection but down 4% from 267.41 million tonnes in 2023-24. The larger carryout reflected a 1.16-million-tonne increase in beginning stocks, a 1.78-million-tonne decrease in production, a 0.46-million-tonne decrease in imports and a 1.02-million-tonne decrease in exports.
