WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. 2014 winter wheat production was forecast at 1.381 billion bushels, down 2% from 1.402 billion bushels forecast in May and down 10%, from 1.534 billion bushels in 2013, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its June 11 Crop Production report. The forecast was below the average trade expectation of 1.93 billion bushels.

Production of hard red winter wheat was forecast at 720 million bushels, down 3% from 746 million bushels in May and 744 million bushels in 2013, soft red winter at 454 million bushels, up 2% from 447 million bushels in May but down 20% from 565 million bushels last year. White winter wheat outturn was forecast at 206 million bushels, down 1% from 209 million bushels in May and down 8% from 225 million bushels in 2013. The white winter wheat forecast included hard white at 10.9 million bushels, down from 11 million bushels in May, and soft white at 196 million bushels, down from 198 million bushels last month.

The USDA forecast Kansas winter wheat production at 243.6 million bushels, down 6% from 260.4 million bushels forecast in May and down 24% from 319.2 million bushels in 2013. Oklahoma production was forecast at 59.4 million bushels, down 5% from 62.7 million bushels in May and down 44% from 105.4 million bushels in 2013. Texas outturn was forecast at 47.5 million bushels, down 14% from 55.1 million bushels in May and down 27% from 65.3 million bushels a year ago.

Indicated abandonment (area planted minus area harvested) was 10% in Kansas (12% last year), 38% in Oklahoma (39%) and 68% in Texas (64%).
U.S. average winter wheat yield was forecast at 42.4 bushels per acre based on June 1 conditions, down 0.7 bushel from May and down 5 bushels from 2013. 
Yields were forecast at 29 bushels per acre in Kansas (31 bushels in May and 38 bushels in 2013), 18 bushels per acre in Oklahoma (19 bushels in May and 31 bushels in 2013) and 25 bushels per acre in Texas (29 bushels in May and 29 bushels last year).

“Drought conditions continue to plague the southern Great Plains,” the USDA said, noting head counts were below year-ago in Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and Montana, but above in Colorado and Nebraska.

In its June 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the USDA forecast all U.S. wheat production in 2014 at 1.942 billion bushels, down 1% from 1.963 billion bushels forecast in May and down 9% from 2.13 billion bushels in 2013. The WASDE forecast uses survey-based numbers for winter wheat and trend data for spring wheat.

Wheat futures prices traded lower after the report, mainly on higher projections for 2014-15 wheat carryover.