The USDA commented in its October 15 Oil Crops Outlook, “U.S. canola production in 2014-15 is forecast at a record 2.5 billion lbs. based on near-record acreage (1.71 million acres) and an above-trend yield (1,622 lbs. per acre). Canola yields for top-producing North Dakota are expected to be the third highest ever. In contrast, winter canola yields in western Oklahoma were slashed by an untimely dry spell during the crop’s March-May flowering and reproductive period. Thus, there was a larger moderating influence on national production given the expansion of Oklahoma acreage this year.”
The USDA noted despite a bumper canola harvest, “Near-record (2 billion lbs.) are still anticipated due to recent expansion of crushing capacity. Also favoring imports is the depreciation of the Canadian dollar, which has lost 5% of its value against the U.S. dollar since July.”
The USDA forecast the 2014-15 canola crush at a record 4 billion lbs.
“Prospects for record-high canola supplies have sent cash prices tumbling to $16-$16.50 per cwt by early October compared with $21 a year earlier,” the USDA noted.
The USDA forecast sunflower production in 2014 at 2,453,770,000 lbs., up 421,045,000 lbs., or 21%, from 2,032,725,000 lbs. in 2013. While production was forecast to show an impressive increase, the 2014 outturn will fall far short of a record: 7.3 billion lbs. were produced in 1979. The recent five-year average outturn was 2.5 billion lbs.
“Nearly all of this year’s production increase can be attributed to an excellent yield, which at 1,626 lbs. per acre topped an all-time high,” the USDA said. “Sown acreage is virtually identical to last year, with higher non-oil-type sunflowerseed offsetting a decrease in oil-type acreage. Sunflowerseed production gains may be divided almost evenly between oil-type and non-oil type varieties.”
Because of low 2014-15 beginning stocks, sunflower supplies were forecast to increase only 11% from the previous year. The larger supply was expected to edge up the sunflowerseed crush to 1.1 billion lbs. from 1.02 billion lbs. in 2013-14, the USDA said.
The USDA forecast cottonseed production in 2014 at 5,369,000 tons, up 1,166,000, or 28%, from 4,203,000 tons in 2013. The 2014-15 cottonseed supply was forecast at 5,844,000 tons (including a carry-in of 425,000 tons and imports of 50,000 tons), up 951,000 tons, or 19%, from 4,893,000 tons in 2013-14. The cottonseed crush was forecast at 2,400,000 tons, up 20% from 2,000,000 tons in 2013-14. Cottonseed oil production was forecast at 770 million lbs., up 140 million lbs., or 22%, from 630 million lbs. in 2013-14.
