The USDA 2014 wheat carryover projection was below the average trade expectation of 624 million bushels. Wheat futures prices traded higher after the 11:00 a.m. Central Time release of the report.
The USDA revised several of its 2012-13 numbers from June, including imports at 123 million bushels, down 2 million, total supply at 3.134 billion bushels, down 3 million, seed use at 73 million bushels, down 3 million, feed and residual at 388 million bushels, up 28 million, total domestic use at 1.407 billion bushels, up 26 million, exports at 1.009 billion bushels, down 1 million, total use at 2.416 billion bushels, up 25 million, ending stocks at 718 million bushels, down 28 million, and outstanding loans at 8 million bushels, up 8 million. Food use of wheat in 2012-13 was unchanged at 945 million bushels, and the average price of wheat paid to farmers was reduced 3¢ to $7.77 a bushel.
The USDA forecast 2013 U.S. all wheat production at 2.114 billion bushels, up 34 million bushels, or about 2%, from 2.08 billion bushels as the June projection but down 155 million bushels, or 7%, from 2.269 billion bushels in 2012, based on harvested area projected at 45.7 million acres and yield at 46.2 bushels an acre.
U.S. wheat imports in 2013-14 were projected at 130 million bushels, unchanged from June but up 7 million from 2012-13. Total supply was projected at 2.962 billion bushels, up 6 million from June but down 172 million, or 5%, from 3.134 million bushels in 2012-13.
Total 2013-14 domestic use of wheat was projected at 1.311 billion bushels, down 11 million bushels from June and down 96 million bushels, or 7%, from 1.407 billion bushels in 2012-13. Wheat used for food in 2013-14 was at 958 million bushels, unchanged from June but up 1% from 945 million bushels in 2012-13. Seed use was seen at 73 million bushels, down 1 million bushels from June. Feed and residual use at 280 million bushels was down 10 million bushels, or 3%, from 290 million bushels in June and down 108 million bushels, or 28%, from 388 million bushels in 2012-13.
Exports were projected at 1.075 billion bushels, up 100 million bushels, or 10%, from 975 million bushels projected in June and up 66 million bushels, or 7%, from 1.009 billion bushels in 2012-13. Total use was projected at 2.386 million bushels, up 89 million bushels, or 4%, from 2.297 billion bushels in June but down 30 million bushels, or 1%, from 2.416 million bushels in 2012-13.
The all wheat average price for 2013-14 was projected at $6.45-$7.75 a bushel, up 20¢ from the June projection and compared with $7.77 a bushel estimated for 2012-13.
Carryover of hard winter wheat on June 1, 2013, was estimated at 343 million bushels, down 5 million from the June estimate, soft red winter at 124 million bushels, up 4 million, hard spring at 165 million bushels, down 35 million, white wheat at 63 million bushels, up 16 million, and durum at 23 million bushels, down 7 million.
In its first by-class numbers for 2013-14, the USDA projected carryover on June 1, 2014, for hard winter wheat at 209 million bushels, down 134 million, or 39%, from 2013, soft red winter at 113 million bushels, down 11 million, hard spring at 181 million bushels, up 16 million, white wheat at 53 million bushels, down 10 million, and durum at 20 million bushels, down 3 million.
U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 1.959 billion bushels, up 10 million from the June projection and up 1.23 million bushels, or 169%, from a downwardly revised 729 million bushels in 2013. The USDA 2014 U.S. corn carryover was above the average trade expectation of 1.874 billion bushels.
The USDA projected 2013 U.S. corn production at a record high 13.95 billion bushels, down 55 million from 14.005 billion bushels as the June projection, but up 29% from 10.78 billion bushels in 2012 based on harvested area of 89.1 million acres and average yield of 156.5 bushels per acre.
U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 295 million bushels, up 30 million, or 11%, from the June projection and up 170 million, or 136%, from 125 million bushels in 2013. The 2014 USDA soybean carryover number was above the average trade estimate of 270 million bushels.
The USDA projected 2013 U.S. soybean production at a record 3.42 million bushels, up 30 million bushels from the June forecast and up 405 million bushels, or 13%, from 3.015 billion bushels in 2012, based on harvested area at 76.9 million acres and an average yield at 44.5 bushels an acre.
U.S. rice carryover on Aug. 1, 2014, was projected at 28.6 million cwts, down 4.5 million, or 14%, from 33.1 million cwts in June and down 4 million, or 12%, from 32.6 million cwts in 2013.
