WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its June 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected the carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2014, at 659 million bushels — a five-year low — down 11 million bushels, or about 2%, from 670 million bushels as the May projection and down 87 million bushels, or 12%, from 746 million bushels on June 1, 2013. 

The USDA 2013-14 wheat carryover projection was above the average trade expectation of 634 million bushels. 

The USDA projected 2013 U.S. all wheat production at 2.08 billion bushels, up 23 million bushels, or 1% from 2.057 billion bushels as the May projection but down 189 million bushels, or 8%, from 2.269 billion bushels in 2012, based on harvested area projected at 46.7 million acres and yield at 44.6 bushels an acre. 

USDA forecasts for 2012-13 were unchanged except for exports, which were reduced 15 million bushels to 1.01 billion bushels, resulting in a like decrease in carryover, estimated at 746 million bushels. 

U.S. wheat imports in 2013-14 were projected at 130 million bushels, unchanged from May but up 5 million bushels from the current year. Total supply was projected at 2.956 billion bushels, up 39 million bushels from May but down 181 million bushels, or 6%, from 3.137 billion bushels in 2012-13. 

Total 2013-14 domestic use of wheat was projected at 1.322 billion bushels, unchanged from May but down 59 million bushels, or 4%, from 1.381 billion bushels in 2012-13. Unchanged from May were projections for wheat used for food in 2013-14 at 958 million bushels, up 1% from 945 million bushels in 2012-13, seed use at 74 million bushels, down 3% from 76 million bushels from last year, and feed and residual use at 290 million bushels, down 70 million bushels, or 19%, from 360 million bushels in 2012-13. 

Exports were projected at 975 million bushels, up 50 million bushels, or 5%, from 925 million bushels projected in May but down 35 million bushels, or 3%, from 1.01 billion bushels in 2012-13. Total use was projected at 2.297 billion bushels, up 50 million bushels, or 2%, from 2.247 billion bushels in May but down 94 million bushels, or 4%, from 2.391 billion bushels in 2012-13. 

The all wheat average price for 2013-14 was projected at $6.25-$7.55 a bushel, up 10¢ from the May projection and compared with $7.80 a bushel estimated for 2012-13. 

Mostly minor changes were made in 2012-13 wheat-by-class numbers. Initial wheat-by-class estimates for 2013-14 will be issued by the USDA in July. 

Carryover of hard winter wheat on June 1, 2013, was estimated at 348 million bushels, up 8 million bushels from the May forecast based on a 7-million-bushel reduction in 2012-13 exports, at 403 million bushels, and a 1-million-bushel increase in supply, including imports. 

Soft red winter carryover was estimated at 120 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from May, based on a 7-million-bushel decrease in exports, estimated at 188 million bushels, and a 2-million-bushel decrease in total supply. 

Hard spring wheat carryover in 2013 was projected at 200 million bushels, up 1 million bushels from May, based on a 2-million-bushel reduction in supply more than offset by a 3-million-bushel reduction in exports, estimated at 217 million bushels. 

White wheat carryover was estimated at 47 million bushels, up 1 million bushels from May based on a like reduction in exports, estimated at 174 million bushels. 

Durum carryover on June 1, was unchanged at 30 million bushels as a 3-million-bushel increase in supply was offset by a like increase in exports, estimated at 28 million bushels. 

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 1.949 billion bushels, down 55 million bushels, or 3%, from 2.004 billion bushels as the May projection, but up 1.18 billion bushels, or 153%, from an upwardly revised 769 million bushels in 2013. The USDA 2013-14 U.S. corn carryover was above the average trade expectation of 1.758 billion bushels. Corn futures prices traded lower after the report. 

The USDA projected 2013 U.S. corn production at a record high 14.005 billion bushels, down 135 million bushels, or 1%, from 14.14 billion bushels as the May projection, but up 30% from 10.78 billion bushels in 2012 based on planted area of 97.3 million acres, harvested area of 89.5 million acres, both unchanged from May, and average yield of 156.5 bushels per acre, down 1.5 bushels from May but up 33.1 bushels, or 27%, from 123.4 bushels in 2012. 

The average price of corn was projected to range from $4.40-$5.20 a bushel in 2013-14, up 10¢ from the May projection, but down from $6.75-$7.15 a bushel estimated for the current year, which was up 5¢ from May. 

U.S. total corn supply was projected at 14.799 billion bushels, down 125 million bushels, or 1%, from May but up 2.88 billion bushels, or 24%, from 11.919 billion bushels in 2012-13, based on beginning stocks of 769 million bushels, imports of 25 million bushels (down 125 million bushels from 2012-13) and 2013 production of 14.005 billion bushels. 

Feed and residual use for 2013-14 was projected at 5.2 billion bushels, down 125 million bushels, or 2%, from May but up 800 million bushels, or 18%, from 4.4 billion bushels in 2012-13. 

Food, seed and industrial use for next year was projected at 6.35 billion bushels, up 55 million bushels from May and up 300 million bushels, or 5%, from 6.05 billion bushels in 2012-13. 

Corn used for ethanol in 2013-14 was projected at 4.9 billion bushels, up 50 million bushels from May and up 250 million bushels, or 5%, from 4.65 billion bushels this year, which also was raised 50 million bushels from May. Food and seed use of corn was projected at 1.45 billion bushels, up 5 million bushels from May and up 50 million bushels from 2012-13. Total domestic corn use was projected at 11.55 billion bushels, down 70 million bushels from May but up 1.1 billion bushels, or 11%, from 10.45 billion bushels in 2012-13. 

Corn exports were projected at 1,300 million bushels, unchanged from May but up 600 million bushels, or 86%, from 700 million bushels in 2012-13, which was down 50 million bushels from May. Total use was projected at 12.85 billion bushels, down 70 million bushels from May but up 1.7 billion bushels, or 15%, from 11.15 billion bushels in the current year. 

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 265 million bushels, unchanged from the May projection, as were all 2013-14 projections for soybeans except for average price, which was raised 25¢ to $9.75-$11.75 a bushel from $9.50-$11.50 a bushel, down from $14.35 a bushel in 2012-13, which was up 5¢ from May. 

The 2013-14 USDA soybean carryover number was below the average trade expectation of 273 million bushels. 

The USDA projected 2013 U.S. soybean production at a record 3.39 billion bushels, up 12% from 3.015 billion bushels in 2012, planted area at 77.1 million acres, harvested area at 76.2 million acres, and yield at 44.5 bushels an acre, all unchanged from May projections. 

U.S. total soybean supply in 2013-14 was projected at 3.53 billion bushels, up 321 million bushels, or 10%, from 3.209 billion bushels in 2012-13, which was raised 5 million bushels based on a like increase in imports, estimated at 25 million bushels in the current year and compared with imports of 15 million bushels projected for next year. 

Domestic soybean crush was projected at 1.695 billion bushels, unchanged from May but up 35 million bushels, or 2%, from 1.66 billion bushels in 2012-13. Exports were projected at 1.45 billion bushels, up 120 million bushels, or 9%, from a downwardly revised 1.33 billion bushels in 2012-13. Seed use was projected at 87 million bushels, down 3 million bushels from the current year, residual at 33 million bushels, up 28 million bushels, and total use at 3.264 billion bushels, up 179 million bushels, or 6%, from 3.085 billion bushels in 2012-13. 

U.S. rice carryover on Aug. 1, 2014, was projected at 33.1 million cwts, unchanged from May but down 1 million cwts, or 3%, from 34.1 million cwts this year. All 2013-14 projected rice numbers were unchanged from May except for average price, which was projected to range from $14.50-$15.50 a cwt, up 20¢ from May and compared with $14.80-$15 in 2012-13.