CHICAGO, ILLINOIS, US — “The organic market came down much faster than we expected in 2024,” said Ryan Koory, vice president, economist with Argus Media Inc., Houston, when speaking at the 2024 Argus Organic & Identity-Preserved Agriculture Forum on Dec. 3. “Ample supplies and weak demand growth are expected to keep downward price pressure on US organic commodities as the industry enters the 2025 marketing year.” 

Production of US organic soybeans is down 7% from the prior marketing year, the result of a decline in acreage and carryover stocks. 

“Imports, however, are expected to see a smaller decline than production, with organic soybean meal imports forecasted to be down only 2%,” Koory said. “Africa is forecasted to supply three-fifths of organic meal imports into the US, though supplies from the region face the risk of further scrutiny following a directive recently released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Overall, the (soybean) market is expected to remain amply supplied throughout 2025, despite declines in both production and imports, limiting potential price increases.”

The organic corn market also will feature ample supply in 2025. Argus forecasts an 8% increase in US organic corn production, which will be fueled by an increase in harvested acres and an increase in yields due to improved moisture conditions. 

“This rise in (organic corn) acres is a result of increased organic acreage data availability from the USDA that resulted in increased acreage estimates in some states,” Koory said. “Imports (of organic corn) are expected to fall 25% in response to strong domestic supplies, and as several large shipments of organic whole corn received from Turkey over 2023 to 2024 (will not occur) again over 2024 to 2025.” 

Then there’s organic wheat, with US production forecast to be record high. Yields increased as moisture conditions recovered across key growing states in the West and High Plains. 

“Harvested acreage also saw a rise, further adding to the supply position,” Koory said. “Organic winter wheat saw the largest increase in acres at 8%, further compounded by a 1% rise in yields. A 2% decline in acres for spring wheat is offset by a 5% rise in yields to push production up 3%.”

For all three crops, large domestic production combined with an increase in imports is expected to keep downward pressure on prices, according to an Argus analysis. The company also expects there to be an increase in organic feed demand. 

Ample organic supplies are expected to limit price gains throughout 2025. This, in turn, likely will impact planting decisions in 2025.

“For organic to truly have the impact that it can, it needs to get bigger,” said Kellee James, vice president of business development at Argus.