KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI, US — Well under half of US winter wheat was rated in good-to-excellent condition in the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) first assessment of the crop still being planted in parts of the major production regions for harvest in 2025. At 38% good-to-excellent, the rating was below 47% expected by the trade and was the second lowest for the date in records back to 1986.
The Department rated the winter wheat crop, which includes hard red winter, soft red winter and white winter wheat varieties, at 5% excellent, 33% good, 39% fair, 16% poor and 7% very poor. The weekly Crop Progress report reflects the 18 states that seeded 89% of the 2023 winter wheat acreage.
For comparison, the USDA on Oct. 30, 2023, said the crop for harvest in 2024 was 84% planted and rated it 8% excellent, 39% good, 35% fair, 11% poor and 7% very poor. This fall, the aggregate pace of US winter wheat seeding at 80% completed by Oct. 27 was behind a year ago and behind the 2019-23 average pace for the date of 84% seeded.
By Oct. 27, planting in the primary hard red winter wheat production states was 87% in Kansas (89% a year ago, 88% as the 2019-23 average), 59% in Oklahoma (74%, 81%), 70% in Texas (72%, 75%), 99% in Colorado (98%, 98%), 99% in Nebraska (100%, 98%), 95% in South Dakota (96%, 98%), 88% in Montana (91%, 91%).
Winter wheat rated good to excellent by the USDA on Oct. 27 was 38% in Kansas (32% a year earlier), 21% in Oklahoma (42%), 30% in Texas (41%), 51% in Colorado (63%), 34% in Nebraska (41%), 44% in South Dakota (59%) and 17% in Montana (all good, 76%).
The year-over-year decline in initial condition ratings is tied directly to dryness across the Plains. The production area has received scanty rainfall in the months since the 2024 crop went in the bin. The USDA, after examining the Oct. 22 US Drought Monitor, said winter wheat areas in drought totaled 70% in Kansas (with 2% in extreme drought, the second-to-worst category), 53% in Texas, 66% in Colorado, 69% in Nebraska, 89% in South Dakota and 13% in Montana. Wheat in drought areas for all states increased from a week earlier, except Colorado and Montana, which were unchanged.
The Drought Monitor map indicated Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota were almost entirely in moderate to severe drought with pockets of abnormal dryness. Most of Oklahoma was in moderate to severe drought, although huge pockets in the northeast and south were in extreme drought, while the Panhandle appeared to have no moisture issues. Northern Texas and that state’s Panhandle region were mostly in moderate to severe drought. Eastern Colorado was a mix of abnormal dryness, moderate drought and areas with adequate moisture. Montana’s drought areas looked similar, although the border with North Dakota was classified in extreme drought.
Sufficient topsoil moisture supplies are key to emergence and initial development of the winter wheat crop. In its latest report the USDA pegged short-to-very-short topsoil moisture supplies at 78% in Kansas, 84% in Oklahoma, 92% in Texas, 63% in Colorado, 84% in Nebraska, 82% in South Dakota and 64% in Montana.
In the US Central states, home to the largest soft red winter wheat production area, planting progress was close to or well ahead of the typical planting pace. Planting completion by Oct. 27 was 59% in Missouri (61% a year earlier, 55% as the recent five-year average for the date), 85% in Illinois (85%, 79%), 72% in Indiana (6%, 74%), 88% in Ohio (83%, 87%) and 89% in Michigan (65%, 79%), the USDA said. Emergence by the same date was 26% in Missouri (30% a year earlier, 31% as the average), 55% in Illinois (55%, 48%), 40% in Indiana (36%, 43%), 52% in Ohio (50%, 59%) and 65% in Michigan (54%, 60%).
Winter wheat conditions were affected by the shortage of moisture in the Central states. The USDA said wheat rated good-to-excellent as of Oct. 27 was 55% in Missouri, 51% in Illinois, 67% in Indiana, 71% in Ohio and 61% in Michigan.
The primary soft red winter wheat production area was in somewhat better shape, moisture-wise, than the Plains. Although drought areas were not as widespread in the Central states, about half or more of each state was abnormally dry or in moderate or severe drought. The USDA’s look at the Oct. 22 Drought Monitor indicated dominant drought impact areas included the upper half of Michigan and most of Ohio. About half of the latter state was in moderate or severe drought. About a third of the state was in extreme or exceptional drought, but this was the southeastern part of Ohio, not the most common soft wheat production area of northeastern Ohio.
The USDA said winter wheat areas in drought as of Oct. 22 were 55% in Missouri, 22% in Illinois, 51% in Indiana, 76% in Ohio and 63% in Michigan.
The USDA said topsoil moisture supplies rated short to very short by Oct. 27 were 70% in Missouri, 80% in Illinois, 76% in Indiana, 82% in Ohio and 62% in Michigan.
