MANDAN, NORTH DAKOTA, US — North Dakota Wheat Commission in its 2023-24 annual report released Oct. 17 highlighted the challenges of last year’s crop, detailed price pressure from intense global competition and discussed improved export demand for US spring and durum wheat.

Cold soil temperatures and late season snowfall complicated the early going of the 2023 crop in North Dakota, but producers caught up to the average seeding pace, completing the task by mid-June for a 7% year-over-year increase in planted acres to 6.6 million acres. Mother Nature’s weather pattern bifurcated in the Peace Garden State. Eastern areas were drier than normal while western and southwestern areas had more favorable production conditions.

Ultimately, North Dakota’s 2023 all-wheat crop was estimated at 308 million bushels based on an average yield of 47.1 bushels per acre, the fourth highest on record for the state and just below 48.9 bushels an acre a year earlier, the report said.

“The crop graded well with good quality, 14.0 protein, and 61.4 pounds per bu test weight, FHB (Scab) impacts were minimal, and damage levels were low,” NDWC said. “Falling number score just under 400 indicated a sound crop with a strong overall performance profile, including ‘customer pleasing’ dough stability and loaf volume ratings compared to the 2022 crop.”

Global competition

While US hard red spring and durum wheats are not direct competitors, lower-quality, lower-priced wheat from Russia and Ukraine pressured all global wheat prices and generated true negative effects for the wheat industry in North Dakota, the report said, noting local producer prices for hard red spring were $8 to $8.50 per bushel, with durum prices at $10 to $10.50 per bushel when the 2023 crop was being seeded, but have since slipped to $5 to $5.25 for hard red spring  and $8 to $8.50 per bushel for durum.

“Quality, end-use performance, and reliability of supply ‘identity’ of US hard red spring and durum sells,” NDWC said. “Established customers continue to buy US spring wheat and durum at premium prices compared to other wheats available, both in the export market and here at home. Demand remains strong in your top 10 markets, mostly in north and south Asia and Latin America. US hard red spring is again the largest selling class of US wheat in the export market. US spring wheat sales in Latin America and the Caribbean realized a 50% increase over the past five years, gradually growing from 37 million bus in 2019 to 56 million in 2023. US domestic market consumption is robust as well, with US mills currently processing 50% of the annual US hard red spring crop and 70% of the US durum crop.”

Rebounding exports

Exports of US hard red spring wheat increased 10% in the June 1-May 31, 2023, marketing year to 235 million bushels, up 10% from the previous year.  US export values were about even with Canadian values thanks to good demand for the high-grading crop, which averaged slightly above 14% protein, plus adjustments to the Pacific Northwest rail price that the Commission had advocated, citing the sharp discounts Canada used in the 2022 marketing year to attract demand in Asia.

“Export demand for US hard red spring wheat remains heavily concentrated in Asia with 70% of sales going to that region in 2023,” NDWC said. “Mexico and the Latin American region account for another 25% of demand, with the remaining share split between traditional buyers in Europe and Africa. US HRS was the leading export class of wheat from the US in 2023, accounting for one-third of total US sales. High quality, higher protein wheat remains a rarity in the international market, which supports demand for North Dakota grown wheat in the face of world markets inundated with cheap Russian and Ukraine wheat.”

US durum exports in 2023 reached 22 million bushels, up 20% from the previous marketing year thanks to a good quality crop, increased import needs in key markets, and drought woes that sharply curtailed Canadian exports.

“US exports were on a stronger pace early in the year, but unexpected, cheap exports from both Turkey and Russia tempered final US sales,” the Commission said.