MANDAN, NORTH DAKOTA, US — The 2024 US spring wheat harvest in the Northern Plains looks to be back on track after a few weeks of disruptive rains. With just more than half the crop in the bin, reports are of good yields and quality overall despite some pockets of higher vomitoxin (DON) and lower falling numbers in the eastern production region where rainfall was heaviest.  

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said 51% of the spring wheat crop had been harvested by Aug. 25, roughly on par with 50% a year earlier and 53% as the 2019-23 average for the date. Completion was 43% in North Dakota (44% as the average), 83% in South Dakota (83%), 54% in Minnesota (59%) and 56% in Montana (61%).

While forecasts for North Dakota still contained chances of thunderstorms, the overall harvest weather picture has improved for Northern Plains producers hoping for a good stretch of dry weather to overcome the effects of recent humidity on fields with thick stands of wheat, said Jim Peterson, policy and marketing director with the North Dakota Wheat Commission.

“What we dealt with in mid-August was an extended period of heavy rain and humidity, but we’re getting beyond that and should be able to get some longer runs of harvest,” Peterson said. “Up this way and in Canada producers like to get as much of it off before you get too far into September because the days get shorter and Old Mother Nature can turn cooler. If they’re taking wheat off with 16% moisture and putting it in an on-farm air bin, to preserve quality they’d like a few longer, warmer days to make sure their bins can help bring the moisture out of the crop. It’s looking a little more promising from that perspective.”

Though the crop’s condition ratings have declined more than analysts expected, the majority remained good or excellent and far better than the drought-affected 2023 crop. The USDA rated the crop yet to be harvested as of Aug. 25 at 69% good-to-excellent, down from 73% a week earlier (the trade expected 72%) but well above 37% a year ago. Good-to-excellent ratings were 77% in North Dakota, 83% in Minnesota and 57% in Montana.

“The crop had a very beneficial June period with a lot of cooler temps, good moisture, good plant establishment, but as it got hotter and drier toward the end of July, there were probably too many plants out there to fully fill to their potential,” Peterson said. “We are hearing reports of some areas with some lighter test weights and yields that are still good. But they obviously fell short of what we’re hearing in some of the eastern parts of the region. We have not totally defined this crop yet. We know there’s obviously areas that did get impacted by the heavy rains, and the trade knows it because they’re seeing it at the front end. I don’t mean to isolate regions, but those issues seem to be more predominant in the eastern part of the region, maybe some in the central part. In general, in the West, and then as you get into Montana and up into southern Canada, there’s even some tougher stories there of yields not reaching expectations.”

While yields in western areas may be disappointing to growers, average protein content was higher, and reports of falling number and DON issues were nil, Peterson said. However, even in areas where falling number hasn’t been affected, vitreous kernel content is lower. Vitreous kernels are important for spring wheat from a marketing perspective, especially for export into parts of Asia. 

“To try to define the crop is a bit challenging, because there’s a lot of good wheat in the reports before the rains where proteins were a little lower, in some areas really low, but in general, for the type of yields that we’re coming off, they were, in perspective, still decent protein levels,” he said. “Producers did apply a lot of fungicides this year, but in some cases, they may not have been able to get out in the fields just because it was wet, so DON levels are a little higher with some differences across varieties.”

Higher yields and lower protein content will be prominent among factors for mills to consider as they transition to new crop. 

“We are hearing some concerns from a few domestic mills that protein levels, at least what’s coming into the market now, are lower than recent years and a little bit lower than expected,” Peterson said. “That tends to happen until the protein premiums get strong enough to encourage producers with the higher protein to move it. Then there is the very low futures price. Producers aren’t moving wheat unless they have to either for storage issues or if they’ve got some pre-sold contracts. Otherwise, I think growers are trying to hold it and certainly if they got higher protein, they’re going to trying to hold that with the trends they’re hearing in the market.”

Recent price movement on the Minneapolis spot wheat basis indicates a protein premium could already be building. The high side of the 15% protein premium jumped 75¢ a bushel in the week ended Aug. 23.

“That would be anticipated because of where the crop has been taken off and positionally where the lower and higher protein is,” Peterson said. “The early harvest South Dakota parts, Minnesota, flows into the domestic mills first and obviously they’re being a little bit challenged on average protein levels. Looking for the fifteens for blending from that perspective. The irony in all this is we had a lot of old crop moved prior to harvest to make bin space. A lot of good protein, high-grading wheat. I think that’s going to help the market rationalize any problem-area shortfalls over time. It’s out there, it’s a matter of where the position is and getting the numbers to work. Eventually, those premiums do flow back to the country. 

“We’re starting to see some spreads in protein, and I know people are a little bit bullish on the milling-quality specs or basis. That’s obviously different for everybody. But it’s probably generally Nos. 1 or 2 grade, probably a 14% protein or higher, less than 2 parts per million DON, 300-seconds falling number, although some years the domestic mills can get by a little bit lower falling number if there are no other issues.

"Top-end milling quality basis will probably see a little bit of bullishness. How far it goes depends on how much the industry adjusts to fit the crop average and that kind of happens over time. The Canadian rail strike added another level of uncertainty. That’s been put on hold for now, but who’s to say that there couldn’t be issues down the road. I’m bullish on it. It’s hard to say where we’ll go because on the export end of the Pacific Northwest, the Montana crop does have some protein. Some vitreousness, so, maybe not quite as acute out there yet. But over time, that protein could get a little short that way as well.”