KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI, US — Organic wheat supply in the United States rebounded solidly in 2023-24. Commodity analysts at Argus Media Group, Houston, in May estimated US organic wheat production at 24.41 million bushels for the 2023-24 marketing year, which was up 22% from 19.96 million bushels in the previous marketing year. Argus projected organic wheat production will increase to 25.32 million bus in 2024-25.

“So far, in the US, this year has seen organic wheat markets rebound after several years of drought, insect pressure and higher-priced conventional markets, leading to a reduction in organic acres as growers considered their seeding options,” said Sam Beveridge, director of emerging nutrition risk and grower relations at Ardent Mills in Denver, Colorado, US. “Recently, adequate moisture levels across hard red winter regions and spring wheat regions in the northern tier states and Canadian prairies have helped to drive supply to meet the current demand.

“As a result, we have seen prices move lower on anticipated supply, which allows growers to expand and have different sellable crops, some of which they have not seen for the past couple years. Still, current carryout stocks remain tight through new crop, which is reflective in the price inverse.”

Consumer dietary shifts and a growing consciousness about health are helping propel organic demand, he said. Data from Ardent Mills show 77% of consumers believe grain-based organic foods are healthier and better for them, and 72% said they believe grain-based organic foods are better for the environment.

“Despite the promising outlook, various factors may affect organic supply, including economic conditions and weather patterns,” Beveridge said. “Rising inflation may impact growers’ entry into the organic sector, which requires years of adherence to organic practices for certification.

“Additionally, weather fluctuations, such as the shift from El Niño to La Niña, will impact various growing regions differently. For example, organic wheat fields in the Pacific Northwest may benefit from improved moisture conditions, but organic wheat fields in the central US have seen almost too much moisture, causing concern for sprouting among wheat crops.”

Ardent Mills has expanded in the organic category. The company in 2019 acquired a grain elevator in Klamath Falls, Oregon, US, that enhanced its ability to source from organic wheat growers in the Pacific Northwest, according to the company. In 2021, the acquisition of Hinrichs Trading Co., a company involved in chickpea sourcing, cleaning and packaging, included the acquisition of a grain elevator in Shelby, Montana, US, which allowed Ardent Mills to source organic wheat from the Montana and Canadian prairies.

Ardent Mills’ organic portfolio also includes ancient grains such as quinoa, amaranth, millet, sorghum, teff and buckwheat available in several formats such as flour, said Michael Rhodes, senior research and development dough systems specialist.

“These increasingly popular gluten-free, non-GMO wheat alternatives have been found to work well in multi-grain mixes to create unique textures and flavor profiles in bread," Rhodes said.