WASHINGTON, DC, US — The Consumer Price Index for baked foods and cereal products fell 0.1% in July, its first month-over-month decline since March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor. Meanwhile, the index for all food at home advanced 0.3%.

“Today’s CPI numbers show that the pace of year-over-year inflation continues to moderate, with food prices remaining a bright spot in the data relative to other sectors like shelter and transportation services,” said Andy Harig, vice president of tax, trade, sustainability and policy development at FMI — The Food Industry Association. “Indeed, year-over-year food-at-home inflation at 1.1% remains below the 2.9% increase in overall inflation and demonstrates that eating at home continues to be an economical way for families to manage their food budgets.

 “The US Department of Agriculture’s Food Price Outlook released last month predicted a 1% increase in food-at-home prices for the remainder of 2024 and just 0.7% for 2025. This should also give consumers additional confidence that grocery inflation will continue to head in the right direction in the coming months, barring any unforeseen shocks.”

 Of the 18 items followed by Milling & Baking News, a sister publication of World Grain, 10 posted month-over-month increases, 7 finished lower and 1 was unchanged.

By comparison, a number of non-grain-based categories tracked by the BLS were stronger in July. The index for eggs was 309, up 5.7% from a month ago and up 19.1% from July 2023. The index for meats was 338.4 in July, up 1.2% from June and up 3.1% from July 2023. Meanwhile, the index for milk was 175.9, up 1.3% from June and up 1.2% from July 2023. Also higher in July were the indices for coffee (up 1.6%), pork (up 0.8%), carbonated drinks (up 0.7%), candy and chewing gum (up 0.4%), chicken (up 0.1%) and soups (up 0.1%).

The July index for Cereals and Bakery Products before seasonal adjustment was 356.5% of the 1982-84 average, unchanged from a year ago. For all food at home, the July index was 306.6, up 1.1% from July 2023.

The CPI for cereals and cereal products in July was 287.2, up 0.2% from June but down 1.6% from July 2023. The index for products within this category included: flour and prepared mixes, 329.5, up 0.6% from June and up 0.9% from the previous year; breakfast cereal, 277, up 0.1% from the previous month but down 1.6% from a year ago; and rice, pasta and corn meal, 290.6, up 0.3% from June but down 2.5% from July 2023.

The price index for bakery products in July was 396.9, down 0.3% from June but up 0.8% from July 2023.

The July index for bread was 238.1 down 1.1% from June and down 0.9% from July 2023. Under this heading, the CPI for white bread was 429.5, down 1% from June and down 1.4% from July 2023. For bread other than white, the index was 464.6, down 1.4% from June and down 0.5% from a year ago.

The price index for fresh biscuits, rolls and muffins in July was 234.3, unchanged from June but up 2.9% from July 2023. The July index for cakes, cupcakes and cookies was 373.3, up 0.7% from June and up 0.7% from July 2023. Under this segment, other price indexes included fresh cakes and cupcakes, 391.4, up 0.1% from June and up 0.1% from July 2023; and cookies, 353.3, up 1.5% from the previous month and up 1.1% from the previous year.