FARGO, NORTH DAKOTA, US — A lengthy planting window followed by plentiful precipitation during development resulted in thriving spring and durum wheat crops in North Dakota. Moderate disease pressure followed the wet spring and fields showed some evidence of mild pest and weed issues. But the overall finding from spring wheat scouts who toured the state in late July was an ample crop with the potential for record yields as much as 15% larger than last year’s crop.

The 2024 Hard Spring and Durum Wheat Quality Tour was conducted July 22-25 throughout the top US spring wheat production state, North Dakota. Select tour routes ventured into northeast South Dakota and northwest Minnesota. The tour is planned by the Wheat Quality Council and its executive vice president, Dave Green.  

The tour’s average yield estimate, calculated on the basis of 237 spring wheat field stops, was 54.5 bushels per acre (bpa), a 15% increase from 47.4 bpa as the 2023 tour’s final yield estimate based on 318 field stops. It was the highest yield estimate generated by the tour in records dating to 1992. The tour’s five-year average spring wheat yield (2018-23 except the pandemic-canceled 2020 tour) is 42 bpa.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on July 12 forecast an average spring wheat yield this year in North Dakota at 56 bpa based on July 1 conditions. The USDA projected the US other spring wheat crop across the six production states at 578 million bushels, up 14% from 2023, based on yields expected to average 53.1 bpa, up 7.1 bushels from 2023 and a record high if realized. The Department forecast spring wheat area harvested for grain or seed at 10.9 million acres, down 1% from last year. Of the total production forecast, 532 million bushels were hard red spring wheat, up 14% from 2023. The USDA will release its second estimate of US spring wheat yield and production this year in its Aug. 12 Crop Production report based on Aug. 1 conditions.

About 45 professionals from across the wheat value chain, academia, government and media scouted wheat fields on the tour. The group mixes industry and wheat tour veterans with those scouting for the first time. The tour is a common assignment from milling, baking and food manufacturers for employees new to the industry. Many repeat attendees are those tasked with sourcing wheat or flour for their companies.

The tour launched from Fargo with an orientation led by Brian Walker, a former miller with Seaboard Allied Milling, Cargill and Miller Milling, now with BW Consulting LLC, who served as emcee for the tour’s nightly meetings. Orientation also included a detailed summary of this year’s crop history from Erica Olson, market development and research manager with the North Dakota Wheat Commission. Olson discussed the seeding conditions this spring that opened a wide window for planting and the prevalence of moisture during the crop’s early stages.

While excellent for crop development, the excess moisture opened the door to higher prevalence of fusarium head blight, also known as scab, in some areas.

Scouts learned to measure wheat height, heads, kernels and row spacing during a training session at the North Dakota State University Agronomy Seed Farm in Casselton, North Dakota. Some of those measurements are calculated using a formula devised by NDSU agronomists to estimate an average yield for a field, which then is used to generate averages for each of the color-coded car routes, the total for each day and ultimately, the final tour yield estimate.

Over the following three days, scouts saw some evidence of scab in most wheat fields. But the prevalence was minimal overall.

During car reports that concluded each tour day, scouts reported some instances of damage from insects such as aphids. Weed pressure was minimal overall, and at least one field featured frequent patches of daisies visible above the wheat stands.

Jim Peterson, policy and marketing director with the North Dakota Wheat Commission, added insight to scouts’ findings during these meetings. He noted the early start to planting in April was interrupted by 17 days of rain. Fourteen inches were received from May to July, a typical total for the entire season in the northern Plains. Both early and late-planted wheat was expected to be high yielding.

The tour visited fewer durum wheat fields than in 2023. On the basis of 18 field stops, the tour generated a durum wheat yield forecast of 45.3 bpa, which compared with 43.9 bpa as the 2023 tour’s durum estimate.