MANDAN, NORTH DAKOTA, US — Crop scouts exploring the wheat fields of southern and southwest North Dakota July 23 forecast the spring wheat yield in 2024 at 52.5 bushels per acre (bpa).

The estimate, drawn from numerous measurements taken during 96 field stops, compared with 48.1 bpa after the first day of the annual spring wheat tour in 2023, which followed nearly identical routes. The estimate was the highest for the tour’s initial day in at least the past six tours.

The group of about 45 scouts, comprising growers, millers, bakers and others along the wheat value chain, conducted their field stops along seven color-coded routes, which allowed simple comparisons with previous years. That was one fewer route than normal. The green route, traditionally followed along the southernmost tier of North Dakota, was eliminated this year based on feedback from recent tours indicating wheat plantings had grown sparse in that area.

At the conclusion of day 1, scouts reconvened at a conference center in Mandan to share findings, both numerical and anecdotal. The highest average spring wheat yield estimates were calculated along the yellow route through the southeastern North Dakota counties of Ransom, LaMoure, Logan and McIntosh (74.2 bpa, which compared with 47.2 bpa along the same route a year ago), and along the red route that jutted north from Fargo and then west through Steele, Griggs, Foster and Stutsman counties in central North Dakota (60.6 bpa, which compared with 50.7 bpa on the 2023 day 1 red route).

The highest calculated single field estimate was 101 bpa on the yellow route. The lowest single field estimate was 22 bpa along the pink route through central North Dakota.

Scouts along all routes noted the presence of wheat scab in nearly every field, but to a minor degree. Other car reports noted the presence of wheat stem maggot damage, smut and ergot in some fields, none to an overwhelming degree.

The overall consensus was of a large crop that will be harvested over a relatively wide planting window three to seven weeks out. That’s due to the wide planting window of about 45 days this spring.

The tour also measured two winter wheat fields nearly ready for harvest and calculated them at an average 51.4 bpa. Scouts measured a solitary durum field and calculated a bpa estimate of 41.2. Tour organizers said many more durum fields will be measured during day 2 along routes heading north into durum country before turning east toward Devil’s Lake.