WASHINGTON, DC, US — The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its July 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report projected the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2025, at 856 million bushels, up 13% from the June outlook of 758 million bushels, up 22% from 702 million bushels in 2024 and up 50% from 570 million bushels in 2023.

The 2025 carryover projection for all wheat classes neared the high side but remained within the range of pre-report trade expectations, but the USDA’s updated estimate of 2024 production extended well beyond the top side of trade estimates.

The National Agricultural Statistics Service of the USDA in its July Crop Production report, released simultaneously with the July WASDE, forecast total 2024 US wheat production at 2.008 billion bushels, up 196 million bushels, or 11%, from 1.812 billion bushels in 2023. After the reports were released, the September contract for all three wheat futures closed an average of 3.2% lower from a day earlier, with weekly losses totaling 5.2% for Kansas City, 6.7% for Chicago and 5.6% for Minneapolis.

By wheat class, the July projections also were mostly above the average of pre-report trade estimates and, in some cases, exceeded the range of expectations. The USDA forecast winter wheat production in 2024 at 1.341 billion bushels, up 46 million bushels, or 3.6%, from the June projection and up 93 million bushels, or 7.5%, from 1.248 billion bushels in 2023. The winter wheat forecast was based on a harvested area projection of 25.808 million acres with an average yield of 52 bushels per acre, up from the June projection of 25.198 million acres with an anticipated average yield of 51.4 bushels per acre. The USDA said record high winter wheat yields this year were expected in Michigan, Missouri, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Adding further pressure to the wheat market was the increase in global wheat stocks. In the July WASDE, the USDA raised its forecast for the global carryover of wheat to 257 million tonnes, up from its June outlook of 252 million tonnes.

“US production was higher, and Russia’s crop was not cut further as we’ve seen in earlier WASDE updates,” said Alex Norton, president of Beeson & Associates, Inc. “This brought immediate pressure to wheat markets that have largely moved on from the crop issues in Ukraine, Russia, and Western Europe. Harvest of the winter crops in these areas is going on now, so we will know more about actual production in the weeks and months to come. But lower production and quality have already had their impact on the market and larger US output, good harvest progress, and a good-looking corn crop are more in focus at this point. A later surprise cut to the European Union, United Kingdom or Russian wheat production might give the market a lift in the short term. But we should be looking at relatively stable pricing into the late summer if the USDA’s July forecasts are close to reality.”

The USDA forecast hard red winter wheat production this year at 763.31 million bushels, up 36.867 million bushels, or 5%, from the June projection, up 162.293 million bushels, or 27%, from 601.017 million bushels in 2023 and near the high side of the range of pre-report trade expectations. The 2024 soft red winter wheat production was forecast at 343.502 million bushels, up 1.052 million bushels, or 0.3%, from the June projection, but down 105.515 million bushels, or 23%, from 449.017 million bushels in 2023, and meeting the average of analysts’ expectations. The department’s July forecast for white winter wheat production came in above the range of trade expectations at 234.443 million bushels, up 8.053 million bushels, or 3.6%, from the June outlook and up 36.729 million bushels, or 19%, from 197.714 million bushels in 2023.