WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — After two consecutive years of declines, the Consumer Price Index for baked foods and cereal products rebounded in 2018, increasing 0.4%. The gain followed declines of 0.5% in 2017 and 0.3% in 2016. The index posted gains of 1.1% in 2015, 0.2% in 2014, 1% in 2013, 2.8% in 2012 and 3.9% in 2011.

Overall, 13 of the 18 categories followed by Milling & Baking News, a sister publication of World Grain, finished higher for the year, 4 finished lower and 1 was virtually unchanged.

The price index for Bakery Products increased 0.8% in 2018, which comes a year after the index was unchanged. The category posted increases of 0.1% in 2016, 1.4% in 2015, 0.4% in 2014, 1.7% in 2013, 3.1% in 2012 and 3.7% in 2011 and a loss of 0.4% in 2010. Two segments within this category — bread and fresh biscuits, rolls and muffins — were introduced in 1998 with a base of December 1997. All other products are based on a 1982-84 average.

In the bread segment, the index increased 0.6% after two consecutive years of 1.1% declines. The index increased 1.3% in 2015 but was down 0.2% in 2014. Within the segment, white bread increased 0.1% for the second consecutive year. The index had decreased 0.2% in 2016 but was 1.2% higher in 2015. Bread other than white also finished stronger, increasing 1.1% after decreasing 0.2% in 2017. The index increased 0.3% in 2016 and 0.8% in 2015.

The index for cakes, cupcakes and cookies continued its upward climb, rising 1.7% in 2018 after increasing 0.4% in 2017, 1% in 2016, 1.9% in 2015, 0.9% in 2014, 1.8% in 2013 and 4% in 2012. The index was up 1.7% in 2011 and 0.4% in 2010.

The CPI for other bakery products declined for the third straight year, easing 0.1% after falling 0.2% in 2017 and 0.4% in 2016. Prior to the three straight years of declines, the index had been up for several years, increasing 0.6% in 2015, 0.5% in 2014, 1.2% in 2013, 2.9% in 2012, 2.4% in 2011 and 0.5% in 2010. In the other bakery products segment, fresh sweet rolls, coffee cakes and donuts were up 2.1%; crackers and other cracker products decreased 1.2%; and frozen and refrigerated bakery products, pies, tarts and turnovers were unchanged.

The CPI for Cereals and Cereal Products decreased 0.5% after falling 1.5% in 2017 and 1.2% in 2016. The index increased 0.5% in 2015 and 0.1% in 2014. This compared with a loss of 0.1 in 2013 and gains of 2.5% in 2012 and 4.4% in 2011. Flour and prepared mixes halted five consecutive years of declines by increasing 0.5% in 2018. The index had decreased 1.9% in 2017, 2.1% in 2016, 1.5% in 2015, 1.2% in 2014 and 0.1% in 2013. This followed impressive year-over-year gains of 5.3% in 2012 and 7.3% in 2011. Breakfast cereal decreased 1.8% in 2018 after falling 1.1% in both 2017 and 2016. Tice, pasta and corn meal increased 0.8% after decreasing 2% and 1% in 2017, and 2016, respectively.

On a monthly basis, the CPI for baked foods and cereal products was stronger, rising 0.4% in December.

The December index for Cereals and Bakery Products before seasonal adjustment was 274.3% of the 1982-84 average. For all food at home, the December index was 240, up 0.3% from November.

The CPI for Cereals and Cereal Products in December was 225.6, up 0.6% from November. The index for products within this category included: flour and prepared mixes, 226.3, up 0.5% from November; breakfast cereal, 222, up 1.3% from the previous month; and rice, pasta and corn meal, 235.6, down 0.2% from November.

The price index for Bakery Products in December was 302.4, up 0.3% from November.

The December index for bread was 182.9, up 1.1% from November. Under this heading, the CPI for white bread was 332.4, up 1.9% from November. For bread other than white, the index was 355.3, up 0.6% from November.

The price index for fresh biscuits, rolls and muffins in December was 181.4, down 0.6% from November. The December index for cakes, cupcakes and cookies was 292.6, up 0.3% from November. Under this segment, other price indexes included fresh cakes and cupcakes, 318.6, up 1% from November; and cookies, 272, down 0.1% from the previous month.

The CPI for other bakery products in December was 262.9, down 0.2% from November. Under this heading, other price indexes in December included: fresh sweet rolls, coffee cakes and donuts, 303.7, down 0.1% from November; crackers and cracker products, 296.8, up 0.6% from November; and frozen and refrigerated bakery products, pies, tarts and turnovers, 265.6 down 0.5%.