COCERAL’s first estimate has crop at 304.4 million tonnes.

Country aiding Ukraine in exporting grain during war with Russia.

High production brings down prices.

War takes over from pandemic as driver of uncertainty.

At 10.74 million tonnes, harvest would be lowest since 1990.

Higher yields to boost production to 19 million tonnes.

Country has strong influence on EU agricultural policy.

Planted area up significantly for rapeseed, sunflower and soybeans.

Now a major crop, massive production of ancient oilseed didn’t really take off in Australia until 1990s.

Bearish fundamentals push prices lower.