wheat
 
WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — Forecasts for the outlook for U.S. and world wheat supply and demand in 2018-19 commanded the market’s attention this week. The U.S. Department of Agriculture issued its initial wheat forecasts for 2018-19 at the department’s Agricultural Outlook Forum in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 23. Earlier in the week, the International Grains Council provided its preliminary projections for 2018-19 world wheat supply and demand, and on Feb. 16, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) issued its initial 2018-19 forecasts for Canadian wheat.

Despite estimating winter wheat plantings for harvest in 2018 at a 109-year low of 32.6 million acres in January, the USDA preliminarily forecast area planted to all-wheat for harvest this year at 46.5 million acres, up a half-million acres from 2017 and compared with 50.1 million acres in 2016. The increase in plantings forecast for 2018 was due to an expected increase in spring wheat planting.

The USDA projected harvested area of wheat in 2018 at 38.8 million acres, up 1.2 million acres from 2017. Average yield in 2018 was forecast at 47.4 bushels per acre, up from 46.3 bushels per acre in 2017 but below a record 52.7 bushels per acre in 2016. Wheat production in 2018 was projected at 1.839 billion bushels, up 6% from 1.741 billion bushels in 2017.

U.S. wheat supply in 2018-19 was projected at 2.983 billion bushels, down 3% from a forecast 3.076 billion bushels in 2017-18 and roughly comparable to the 2015-16 supply at 2.927 billion bushels. Wheat disappearance in 2018-19 was projected at 2.052 billion bushels, down 15 million from the forecast for 2017-18.

The USDA projected the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2019, at 931 million bushels, down 8% from 1.009 billion bushels as the forecast for the current year.

AAFC forecast area planted to all-wheat in Canada for harvest this year at 9.51 million hectares (1 hectare = 2.47 acres), up 4% from 9.126 million hectares in 2017. Harvested area was projected at 9.31 million hectares, up 4% from 8.983 million acres in 2017. AAFC projected average yield at 3.22 tonnes per hectare, signifying a return to trend yields compared with 3.34 tonnes per hectare in 2017. Canadian wheat production in 2018 was forecast at 30 million tonnes, up only 16,000 tonnes from 2017.

AAFC projected planted area of wheat excluding durum (winter wheat and spring wheat) in 2018 at 7.3 million hectares, up 4% from 7.02 million hectares in 2017. Harvested area was projected at 7.14 million hectares, up 4% from 6.895 million hectares. Average yield was forecast at 3.4 tonnes per hectare compared with 3.63 tonnes in 2017. Production of wheat excluding durum in 2018 was projected at 24.3 million tonnes, down 3% from 25.022 million tonnes in 2017.

AAFC projected Canadian all-wheat ending stocks in 2018-19 at 6 million tonnes, down 300,000 tonnes from the forecast for the current year.

In its preliminary outlook for 2018-19, the IGC forecast world wheat harvested area at 217.9 million hectares, down 0.7% from 2017-18, world wheat production at around 741 million tonnes, down 2%, world wheat consumption at a record 746 million tonnes, up 1.6%, and world trade in wheat at a record 179 million tonnes. The IGC projected world wheat ending stocks in 2018-19 at 250 million tonnes, the first decline in six years but still the second highest on record.