Rarely does the election of one man have such a significant impact on world agricultural trade. But Donald Trump’s return to the White House means the United States will likely impose high tariffs on products being imported from China and other countries, which will almost certainly lead to retaliatory tariffs and more difficulty shipping agricultural products. Global free trade, which has already been on the decline, will face even stiffer headwinds as stronger protectionist policies are implemented.

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Uncertainty ahead in second Trump term

US ag groups concerned about potential tariffs

In May, thousands of tractors blocked the streets in capital cities across Europe as farmers protested EU environmental policies on climate change and the influx of cheaper food imports from Ukraine that they said were eroding their profits. European politicians responded by proposing various forms of relief, including exceptions to climate laws and new subsidies for farmers faced with loss of income. 

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From the editor: EU farmers taking on big government

Discord impacting EU grain, feed industries

Although Ukraine’s grain shipping corridor that was formed in 2023 after Russia withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative remained functional throughout 2024, Russia increased its attacks on Ukrainian grain assets, especially those located near Black Sea ports and the Danube River. Total war-related damages to Ukraine’s agriculture sector are estimated at $10.3 billion from February 2022 through January 2024, according to the Kyiv School of Economics, while total war-related losses to Ukraine’s agriculture sector are estimated at $83 billion.

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 From the editor: Ukraine's grain sector remarkably resilient

Study details Ukraine war's wheat market impact

The Securities and Exchange Commission in January opened an investigation into ADM’s accounting practices in its Nutrition division. Vikram Luthar, ADM’s longtime chief financial officer, was initially placed on administrative leave and later resigned. In December, Reuters reported that federal prosecutors have broadened their criminal investigation into whether ADM intentionally misled investors about the financial results of the Nutrition division. ADM’s stock price has fallen by more than 25% since the investigation began 11 months ago.

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ADM executives offer update, pledge integrity

ADM hires Patoawala as executive VP, CFO

Cargill in December announced that it was set to lay off approximately 5% of its global workforce, or 8,000 employees. The move comes in the wake of the company’s weak financial performance during fiscal 2024 and a restructuring of the business.

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Cargill to cut 5% of global workforce

Cargill revenues dip in fiscal 2024

Russia in April said it was urging a trade alliance of nine emerging countries including Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) to establish an inter-bloc grain exchange. The officially declared purpose of the alliance is to facilitate trade between member states, but analysts said the new structure will aim to become an analogue of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for the global grain market, with the goal of influencing free pricing.

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Guest editorial: BRICS proposal lacks substance

Russia pushing for BRICS grain exchange

The proposed $8 billion merger between agribusiness giants Bunge and Viterra, first announced in June 2023, has been slow to gain approval. Although the companies had hoped to complete the merger in 2024, Bunge said it likely won’t occur until 2025 as it awaits government approval from Canada and several other key markets. The European Commission approved the merger in August 2024 but with conditions, including Viterra divesting its oilseed businesses in Hungary and Poland. Canada's Competition Bureau reported that the merger is likely to have anti-competitive effects and reduce competition between Bunge and Viterra in Canadian agricultural markets. 

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Agribusiness challenges drag down Bunge earnings

European Commission OKs Bunge-Viterra merger

It was a challenging year for grain transportation. Iran-backed Houthi rebel forces in Yemen continued to attack ships traveling through the Red Sea, causing some grain shipments to be redirected on longer, more expensive routes. The Black Sea continued to be a volatile region for grain shipping as Russia ramped up its attacks on grain assets at Ukrainian ports and on the Danube River. In North America, several major railways dealt with labor protests that delayed shipments for short periods during 2024. Workers also went on strike at key agricultural trading ports in Brazil and Argentina at various points in 2024.

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What's in store for grain shippers?

Demand surges for ship loaders/unloaders

The USDA on Aug. 27 announced its approval of Bioceres’ HB4 drought-tolerant trait in wheat, paving the way for cultivation in the United States. However, several wheat organizations cautioned that it could still take several years for genetically engineered HB4 to be commercialized in the United States, as there are several more steps taken, including the need to conduct closed-system field trials prior to commercialization.

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Expectations positive, but tempered, on GM wheat in US

HB4 wheat gains USDA approval

The Indian government in February announced a $15 billion investment to create an additional 700 lakh tonnes (70 million tonnes) of grain storage capacity over the next five years by constructing thousands of warehouses and bins throughout India. The stated goal is to construct enough grain storage capacity to store 100% of India’s grain production.  If successfully implemented, the scheme will decrease the amount of inadequately stored grain, reduce the need for long-distance transportation, lower transportation costs, and improve the efficiency of the supply chain.

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India's grain production remains strong

From the editor: Promising news out of India