KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI, US — The world wheat market is keeping geopolitics in mind as 2024 comes to a close, with developments in Ukraine, Russia and the Middle East getting traders’ attention. But with well-supplied end users sitting on their hands, activity has been limited.

In its last Arable Market Report of 2024, issued on Dec. 16, the United Kingdom’s Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) said world grain markets were mixed the previous week, “generally trading sideways.”

“For the May-2025 contract, Chicago wheat futures fell 0.6% across the week,” the AHDB said. “However, UK feed wheat and Paris milling wheat futures gained 0.9% and 0.7%, respectively. Conversely to wheat, Chicago maize futures (May-2025) rose 0.9% on the week.”

The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for December was more bullish for maize than wheat, the AHDB noted. It also cited a SovEcon forecast that “Russian wheat exports for December could range from 3.3 million to 3.5 million tonnes, down from 4.1 million in November, although in line with the five-year average.”

The British analysts further said that Argentina’s Rosario Grain Exchange upped its 2024 wheat harvest estimate by 500,000 tonnes to 19.3 million, “due to improved wheat conditions as the harvest is reported 58% complete.”

“In review of the last 15 years, this would make the 2024 harvest the third largest, behind 2021 and 2019,” they noted.

The AHDB also mentioned the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia, which had raised its number for Western Australia’s wheat production by 500,000 tonnes, to 10.8 million, “due to better-than-anticipated yields,” while “eastern areas of Australia recorded significant rainfall last week, which delayed harvest progress. However, drier conditions have been forecasted.”

US Wheat Associates (USW), in its Weekly Price Report of Dec. 13, also reported mixed futures markets.

“A strong dollar pressured futures despite a temporary boost from lower US ending stocks,” USW noted. “Basis levels were mixed across export regions and classes, though markets have begun to enter a holiday lull.

“Some interest was noted for March shipments, but most mills are covered through February, and farmers continue to hold wheat stocks. Basis in the Gulf was flat. Meanwhile, PNW HRS basis remained firm, while HRW basis and SW prices decreased to maintain competitiveness.”

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said in its Food Price Index report on Dec. 6 that “global wheat prices declined month on month due to increased supplies from the ongoing harvests in the Southern Hemisphere and improved crop conditions for the 2025 harvests in some major Northern Hemisphere exporting countries.”

“Weaker international demand also contributed to the softer price tone,” the FAO said.

In its Dec. 10 WASDE report, the USDA said “the global wheat outlook for 2024-25 is for lower supplies, consumption, and trade and slightly higher ending stocks.”

“Supplies decline 600,000 tonnes to 1.060 billion, as larger beginning stocks are more than offset by lower global production,” the USDA said. “Production is forecast lower for the European Union, down 1.3 million tonnes, to 121.3 million, on harvest data showing lower production for several Member States.”

The USDA also forecast a smaller Brazilian crop based on updated harvest information. It put world wheat trade down 1 million tonnes, to 213.7 million, “as reductions for EU and Russia exports more than offset higher US and Ukraine exports.”