WEST LAFAYETTE, INDIANA, US — Anticipating a favorable regulatory and tax environment following the election of Donald Trump as US president, farmer sentiment soared to its highest level in more than three years in November, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

The survey, conducted Nov. 11-15, resulted in the barometer climbing 30 points from the previous month to a reading of 145. This marked the highest level of farmer optimism since May 2021, driven by considerable gains in both the Current Conditions and Future Expectations indices. The Future Expectations Index saw the largest jump, rising 37 points to 161, while the Current Conditions Index increased 18 points to 113.

In November’s survey, farmers reported a notably more positive outlook for their operations and the broader agricultural economy. The percentage of producers expecting their farm’s financial performance to improve over the next year climbed to 33%, up from 19% in October. Optimism about the US agricultural sector also surged, with 34% of farmers anticipating good times financially in the next 12 months, more than double October’s 15%.

Looking ahead five years, over half of November’s respondents (52%) predicted widespread prosperity for US agriculture, an increase from 34% the previous month. This growing confidence also was reflected in farmers’ investment plans, as 22% reported that it’s a good time for large capital investments, compared to 15% in October.

However, farmers expressed concern about Trump’s promise to slap high tariffs on imports from countries like China once he takes office in January. During his first term as president (2016-2020), Trump’s trade war with China led to retaliatory measures that negatively impacted US agricultural exports. Forty-two percent of November’s survey respondents indicated they believe it is “likely” or “very likely” that US agriculture could face a trade war.

“As we move into 2025, farmers’ outlook for agriculture remains positive, but they are closely monitoring the evolving political landscape and its potential impact on both policy and international trade,” said James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

To gain insight into how farmers’ sentiment might align with potential policy shifts following a change in presidential administrations, barometer surveys included several policy-related questions before and after the 2020 and 2024 elections.

In the wake of the 2024 election, farmers’ views on environmental regulations experienced a sharp reversal. In October, 41% of respondents anticipated a more restrictive regulatory environment over the next five years, while only 10% expected less restrictive regulations. However, the November survey saw a dramatic shift, with just 9% of surveyed farmers expecting stricter regulations and 55% predicting a more favorable, less restrictive regulatory landscape.