ASTANA, KAZAKHSTAN — Wheat exports from Kazakhstan are projected to be 9 million tonnes in marketing year 2024-25, with an ongoing trade dispute threatening Kazakh traders’ ability to export via Russia and logistics challenges, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Kazakh farmers are finishing harvest, having dealt with rains in early September and cold night temperatures in October that reduced overall quality but only marginally affected quantity, the FAS said in its Oct. 24 update. Kazakhstan’s estimated wheat production is 15.8 million tonnes in 2024-25, up from 12.1 million tonnes in 2023-24.

Kazakhstan’s grain harvest is expected to be finished by the end of October to early November. Late September data indicated 1.4 million tonnes of wheat qualified as milling quality, or 56%, feeding quality is reported at 28% and non-class is reported at 10% of production, according to the FAS.

In its August report, the FAS had forecast 10.5 million tonnes of exports in 2024-25 for Kazakhstan’s improved wheat harvest, having shipped just 8.5 million tonnes in 2023-24 after 10.8 million tonnes in 2022-23.

However, Kazakhstan has extended a ban on wheat imports from Russia for another six months and expanded the ban to include all modes of transportation. Russia has retaliated, banning Kazakh wheat and other products for import. Traders report having difficulty moving cargo through Russia, despite there being no transit ban.

The government export order came into force on Aug. 21 and is valid until Dec. 31. This order is aimed at tightening restrictions on Russian origin wheat into Kazakhstan to relieve strong price competition during the fall harvest, the FAS said.

The age of Kazakhstan’s grain hopper fleet and lack of availability is already causing logistical delays. Most grain in Central Asia is shipped via rail, and about 62% of the grain wagon fleet is between 21 and 30 years old with an average shelf life of 30 years. About 30% of the available fleet is older than 30.

The forecast for wheat consumption is 7 million tonnes in 2024-25, in line with last year’s 7.5 million tonnes as demand remains healthy from the processing industry. Feed and residuals are estimated at 2 million tonnes as farmers expect continued strong demand from China for feeding flour.

Kazakhstan has 130 active mills with total milling capacity of about 9 million tonnes per year. Due to subsidies, costly logistics, and lack of international demand, the milling sector operates at only 50% capacity on average, processing around 4 million tonnes of wheat per year.

Barley production is forecast at 3.4 million tonnes in 2024-25, up from 2.6 million tonnes in 2023-24 and unchanged from the August projection by the FAS.

Exports are seen at 1.6 million tonnes, a jump from 1.2 million tonnes the previous year. Most barley is being exported to other Central Asian countries or China and is more resilient to the ongoing trade issues with Russia.