SÃO PAULO, BRAZIL — In its first estimate of the 2024-25 grain harvest, Conab said Brazil will produce 322.47 million tonnes of grain, an 8.3% increase from last season.

If realized, it would be a new record, Conab said on Oct. 15. Total harvested area is estimated at 81.34 hectares, an increase of 1.9%.

Soybean production is estimated at 166.05 million tonnes, an increase of nearly 13% from last year. Planted area will increase 2.8% when compared to the previous season. However, the percentage of growth in the area of the oilseed has slowed down this harvest, being the third lowest percentage increase recorded since the 2009-10 cycle, Conab said. The delay in the onset of rains has hindered soil preparation and planting work.

Soybean exports for 2025 are projected at 105.54 million tonnes, based on increased production and global demand, especially from China. Final stocks are estimated at 4.16 million tonnes.

Corn production is estimated at 119.74 million tonnes, an increase of 3.5%. Exports are projected at 34 million tonnes and demand for the grain in the domestic market is expected to remain strong, due to the good performance of the animal protein export market and ethanol production, Conab said.

Wheat, the main winter crop, had its harvest forecast reduced to 8.26 million tonnes in the Oct. 15 report. Weather problems throughout the cycle, such as drought at the beginning, the lack of prevailing cold weather, the occurrence of two periods of frost in August and diseases justify this reduction.

Rice production is estimated at approximately 12 million tonnes, recovering to the volume of the 2017-18 harvest.

“With these numbers, Brazil is expected to return to the level of the largest rice harvests in its history,” said Edegar Pretto, president of Conab. “This is the result of the work of our producers, in partnership with the federal government, which has once again developed public policies for the entire Brazilian agricultural sector, including small, medium and large producers.”

The increase in production also allows for both an increase in grain exports, which could reach 2 million tonnes, and an increase in carryover stocks at the end of harvest, estimated at 840,000 tonnes.