KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI, US — Early in 2024 when forecasters were trying to make their moment in the spotlight there seemed to be a link to some of the hottest years on record for the summer season ahead. World Weather looked at the lunar cycle and found a common theme in the summers of 2006, 1988, 1970, 1952 and 1934.

Each of those years had a higher-than-usual number of 100-degree days in the Great Plains, western Corn and Soybean Belt and Delta relative to other summers. That parallel was used in the summer outlook for 2024 along with a drier bias that seemed to be associated with the same years. Instead of heat and dryness in the Midwest there was timely rain and seasonably warm temperatures. How far off was that forecast?

It was close, but not a winner. The heat of 2024 was nearby to the Corn and Soybean Belt, but it failed to reach into the heart of the growing season. However, the history books will show a higher-than-usual number of 100-degree days from Texas to Kansas in 2024 — similar to that projected for the summer, but the heat stayed a little too far to the west. The truly hottest weather was in the far western states, with California and many neighboring states recording many extremely warm to hot days. Hot weather recorded in each of the five lunar cycle years listed above did verify, but just too far to the west to have much impact on grain and oilseed production.

Serious dryness seemed to elude key US crop areas as well as the lack of excessive heat this year — at least through July. August weather started to trend drier, and the dryness became many times more significant in September and early October. The dryness was expected to continue through Oct. 20 as well. The only exception to the late year dryness was in the Delta, Tennessee River Basin and southeastern states where Hurricanes Francine and Helene brought horrific wind and flooding.

The two tropical cyclones and another impacting the Gulf of Mexico and Florida during the second week of October (Hurricane Milton) each contributed to the dry bias that evolved in late summer and allowed it to prevail through early October with projections of limited relief until after Oct. 20. That dryness and some reports of lighter-than-usual rainfall earlier in the summer has brought a little more parallel to what was predicted to be a hot, dry, summer in the Plains and western Corn Belt. As it turns out, the dryness that began in August and dominated September and now October is quite like that of 1952.  

The 1950s are commonly referred to as the drought years, and 1952 was one of many dry years that occurred in the heart of the United States during that time. That series of dry years were all associated with a multi-year La Niña event, the 22-year solar cycle and one of the longest periods of negatively phased Pacific Decadal Oscillation on record.

Does all of that sound familiar?

It should because the spring and summer outlook of 2024 was largely based on that same set of anomalies. Unfortunately for this forecaster, close predictions are worthless. Most of the real desperate meteorologists will take those close forecasts and twist them around into a victory, but when you are wrong you are wrong. It is still quite fascinating to see how close the parallels to other years in the lunar cycle came to that of 2024.

October is not over, but the current bout of dryness will last through at least the 20th of this month. That will be long enough to make both September and October weather look very much like that of 1952 when dryness and warmer-than-usual weather dominated the same two months.

One of the features that helped the past several weeks trend drier was the multiple tropical cyclones that evolved in the Gulf of Mexico. Those storms trapped Gulf of Mexico moisture from shifting northward from the region into the United States. Some of the most famous drought years in the Midwest and Great Plains evolved because the Gulf of Mexico was closed as a moisture source, and in a few short weeks of time key crop areas can go from favorably moist to too dry.

In the case of 2024, all of these changes toward dryness came too late in the growing season to push commodity futures prices higher like so many producers were hoping for. The low demand for US grain and oilseeds with no seriously adverse weather through the last weeks of the moisture sensitive part of the growing season left the market mentality quite bearish leading to the downfall of prices while at the same time crop areas were drying out.

When it comes to weather and commodity trading it always comes down to timing, and even though 2024 rainfall and temperatures in North America will be a good fit for other member years in this lunar cycle there will be no fame or glory in the parallel this time around … or will there be? Dryness in the Plains was delaying wheat emergence and establishment at the same time Russia was too dry and warm along with eastern Ukraine. There has been much talk recently about dryness in Argentina and Western Australia, as well. Some short-term market rallying was attempted in early October, but relief to these drier areas was expected to come soon leaving no reason for rallying market calls — at least not for now.

By the way, November and December 1952 weather became a little wetter in the US Plains, Midwest and Delta, but pockets of notable dryness did prevail. Some of the dryness lasted though winter and into spring. The biggest weather change in the spring and summer of 1953 was a wetter bias in Canada and the north-central United States. Dryness did linger in parts of the Midwest, but some of the support or paralleling weather patterns may diminish before we get to summer 2025.

Drew Lerner is senior agricultural meteorologist with World Weather, Inc. He may be reached at worldweather@bizkc.rr.com. World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the corporation’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice.