KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI, US — Before Russia invaded Ukraine, triggering a disruption of the global wheat supply and exacerbating the continent’s wheat deficit crisis, Africa’s wheat industry already was battling climate change, unfavorable trade policies, and inadequate investments in the sub-sector.

Africa spends up to $75 billion to import an estimated 100 million tonnes of cereals every year, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB). It relies on international wheat markets to meet its consumption requirements as production volumes remain inadequate, but imports remain a challenge as the Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted the global supply chain in the world wheat market.

The continent currently imports around 40 million tonnes of wheat annually valued at $15 billion with the AfDB noting that wheat imports comprise up to 90% of Africa’s $4 billion trade with Russia and nearly half of the continent’s $4.5 billion trade with Ukraine. 

“Sanctions against Russia have disrupted grain shipments at a time when global stockpiles were already tight and this is now raising the specter of mass starvation on a continent that depends on food imports to feed itself,” it said.

Even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Africa’s wheat production and supply chains were grappling with the adverse effects of climate change characterized by rising temperatures, drought and flash floods as well as civil conflicts in places like Sudan and Ethiopia. These factors have combined to constrain growth of the region’s food systems, especially wheat.

Production problems

In the North African countries such as Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria, where wheat production is heavily rain-fed, below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures have been linked to the sub-region’s widespread drought conditions and decline in wheat output.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations estimated wheat production in the North Africa region would average 16.6 million tonnes in 2024, down from 17.7 million and 16.8 million tonnes in the 2023 and 2022 marketing years, respectively.

In East Africa, wheat production has remained flat at 6.6 million tonnes from 2022 to 2024, according to the FAO. A similar trend is occurring in southern Africa where production is likely to decline slightly to 2.6 million tonnes this year compared to 2.7 million in 2023.

The five-year average for Africa’s wheat producing regions indicates a general, though minimal, increase in local production driven largely by government initiatives to achieve adequate supplies but which have consistently remained far below consumption demands.

Between 2010 and 2020, reports indicated that Africa’s wheat production increased from 20.9 million tonnes to 25.3 million tonnes, a 21% increase. During that same period, however, local demand for wheat grew by 30%, to 75.9 million tonnes from 58.2 million, driven by population growth, urbanization, changing dietary habits and preferences, and increasing disposable incomes.

With the unpredictable weather patterns, the African government is aware of the risks of being too reliant on imports as opposed to exploring measures to mitigate climate change effects to meet the ever-increasing consumption levels.

Mitigating climate change

According to the Alliance for Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA), an African-based organization seeking an agricultural transformation on the continent, the global political developments have demonstrated that “importing wheat can pose challenges for African economies.” 

AGRA cites leading regional wheat importers such as countries in North Africa, which import an average of 27 million tonnes per year, as well as eastern Africa and western Africa countries, which average 12 million and 9 million tonnes per annum, respectively.

Several African countries such as Egypt, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia and Sudan are implementing initiatives aimed at mitigating the effects of climate change on wheat production.

In response to this existential risk of wheat import-dependence, several African countries such as Egypt, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia and Sudan are implementing initiatives aimed at mitigating the effects of climate change on wheat production such as expanding farming of irrigated wheat and adopting new crop varieties. The drive targets increasing wheat yield per hectare to reduce demand for more wheat farming acreage, especially in regions where population growth is reducing the land available for agriculture.

For example, Egypt, one of the world’s largest wheat importers that has seen a spike in wheat prices due to the war in Ukraine, largely has succeeded in improving wheat accessibility and affordability for consumers while cutting down on the country’s wheat import bill.

Reports indicate that Egypt relied on Russia for up to 61% for its total wheat imports valued at $3.2 billion and 24% from Ukraine valued at $1.2 billion. In fact, AfDB said the share of wheat imports from Ukraine dipped to 13% from 30% in the 2022-23 marketing year, while those from Russia rose to 80% from 46%.

“Wheat prices have risen by 44% due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine crisis resulting in a deficit of wheat imports and a budget deficit due to supply chain disruptions,” AfDB said.

Egypt, which spent $3.8 billion on wheat imports between 2017 and 2021, according to the AfDB, is pushing ahead with an ambitious project that aims to increase wheat productivity and the availability of irrigation water, introduce new resilient wheat cultivars and utilize irrigation technologies.

The $2.29 billion, seven-year project that is supported by IFAD, AfDB, USAID, and the World Bank is focused on “increasing wheat productivity and applying innovation and technology transfer in farmers’ fields.” 

Under Egypt’s 2030 Vision Action Plan, the government of President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi is committed to reduce by 20% the losses reported in wheat production and increase production to 12.2 million tonnes per annum over the next six years. If the plan is successful, AfDB said it will reduce wheat imports by $891 million. 

The AfDB said one of the goals of the project is to “increase the efficiency of water resources used for wheat production by rehabilitating and lining irrigation canals to reduce wastewater losses.” It also includes the initial development of on-farm irrigation in the Old Valley and Delta regions within three years.

In southern Africa, where drought has ravaged some of the top wheat producing countries, Zimbabwe is banking on modern irrigation technology to improve its wheat production despite reported shortages of water for irrigation.

As the Russia-Ukraine conflict drags on, Zimbabwe has expanded its wheat acreage from 80,883 hectares in 2022 to 90,000 hectares this year, with the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe saying wheat output may have surpassed 400,000 tonnes in 2023, up from 375,131 tonnes in 2022. 

SAVE wheat variety

In its drive to achieve self-sufficiency in wheat, Zimbabwe has embraced a new bread wheat variety called SAVE, developed by the International Centre for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA).

“SAVE thrives under harsh conditions due to its resistance to heat, drought and yellow and leaf rust with a potential yield of up to seven tonnes per hectare,” ICARDA said.

The wheat variety was released in 2022 and Zimbabwe began planting it in 2023 with ICARDA noting that the country’s wheat output for the year increased to 468,000 tonnes from the 90,186 hectares under cultivation. As a result, the national self-sufficiency goal was exceeded by 30%.

Other wheat producers such as Ethiopia and Sudan also have expanded their irrigated wheat acreage, increased use of modern irrigation technology and adopted climate change-resilient wheat varieties.

But as AGRA warned, the war in Ukraine has exacerbated the growing dependence of “African countries on Russia and Ukraine, particularly for their agricultural needs, (and it) has greatly contributed to worsening the tensions and difficulties that already existed on the food front.”

In fact, the organization said the trade uncertainty along the Black Sea could “usher back in the era of high food prices, given that 44% of the wheat consumed on the continent comes from Russia and Ukraine.”

For Africa to meet its wheat consumption needs for its more than 1 billion people, there is urgent need to increase investment in climate mitigation measures, wheat farm mechanization, sustainable use of agricultural farm inputs, research, development and adoption of high yielding wheat varieties.