LAGOS, NIGERIA — Import estimates for wheat, rice and corn in Nigeria in marketing year 2024-25 have increased as the economy stabilizes, inflation cools and the government implements a temporary zero-duty import policy for those crops until Dec. 31, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Nigeria, the largest country in Africa with 232 million people, will import an estimated 4.7 million tonnes of wheat in 2024-25, a 6% increase from the FAS April estimate, though still lower than the 5 million tonnes projected for 2023-24. The country is expected to produce only 120,000 tonnes, which is unchanged from the prior year.

“Despite government efforts to increase production, this unchanged estimate is attributed to ongoing insecurity in wheat producing areas, high fertilizer and seed prices, and broad-based cost-of-living increases affecting farmer planting decisions,” the FAS said.

The government’s temporary waiver of import tariffs and duties on wheat imports is expected to increase imports, but continued weak miller and consumer demand, and the temporary nature of the waivers, could temper private sector utilization of this policy to import more, the FAS said. Demand for 2024-25 is seen at 4.4 million tonnes, down from 4.7 million tonnes in 2023-24.

Corn production in 2024-25 is projected to climb to 11.68 million tonnes, up from 11 million tonnes in 2023-24 and a 6% increase from April’s FAS forecast, while imports will be 110,000 tonnes, up slightly from 100,000 tonnes year on year. The improved harvest is due to increased planted area and higher prices that are encouraging farmers to plant the crop, the FAS said.

About 45% of domestically produced corn is used in animal feed, with most of this used for poultry production. Feed constitutes about 70% of the cost of production for poultry farmers, with corn as the essential ingredient.

Domestic rice production in 2024-25 is forecast at 7.5 million tonnes, a 3% decrease compared to the April FAS estimate of 7.7 million tonnes. Insecurity in rice producing regions, somewhat challenging weather conditions, and the high cost of inputs are contributing to the reduction. Production in 2023-24 is projected to be 8.5 million tonnes.

The relative affordability of rice compared to other staple foods is expected to increase consumption to 7.4 million tonnes, up 3% from the April estimate of 7.2 million tonnes. To meet demand, 2024-25 imports are to be 1.9 million tonnes, a 21% increase from April’s estimate of 1.5 million tonnes, though down slightly from 2 million tonnes the prior year.

“Despite the weakened purchasing power of consumers, rice is an important food that households across the country would respond by purchasing more at any price reduction,” the FAS said.