BEIJING, CHINA — China’s feed demand is expected to recover slightly in 2024-25 with corn as the dominate ingredient due to low prices, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
Feed demand is estimated at 286.5 million tonnes, up from 284.7 million tonnes a year earlier. After a slow start, pork and chicken production is expected to increase in the second half of the market year.
Corn use will increase to 235 million tonnes from 223 million tonnes, replacing wheat and old stock rice, the FAS said. China’s corn prices fell to a three-year record low in the first seven months of 2024, and are expected to stay low in 2024-25, the FAS said.
“Lower corn prices will also encourage increased corn use in the processing sector compared to previous years,” the FAS said.
In the first seven months of 2024, industry sources said corn processing plants’ operating capacity rates have increased to 61% from 53%. The corn processing industry is expected to see improved profitability in 2024-25, benefiting from the lower corn prices.
Corn production is forecast at 293 million tonnes in 2024-25, slightly down from previous estimates due to floods but still higher than previous years, the FAS said.
Imports are estimated at 20 million tonnes, a drop of 1 million tonnes from the USDA’s September estimate. The Chinese government is promoting higher local production and recently launched a campaign to boost grain production capacity by 50 million tonnes by 2030.
