CANBERRA, AUSTRALIA — A one-two punch of frost and dryness may significantly reduce wheat production in Australia, a major global supplier, compared to estimates just a month ago, Reuters reported, citing industry analysts.

With adverse weather damaging crops in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, some analysts have cut the wheat harvest outlook to as low as 27 million tonnes after a more promising outlook in August.

Heading into September, Australia enjoyed good soil moisture in most cropping zones, but rain has since been sparse, and frost hit large areas of the country’s south and southeast two weeks ago. 

Rod Baker at Australian Crop Forecasters (ACF) told Reuters that he had revised his wheat harvest estimate to 30 million tonnes or less from 31.7 million tonnes in August. He said rain would be needed in October to prevent further losses. 

Australia’s weather bureau is predicting above-median rainfall in October for almost all winter cropping zones, which are in the southwest, south and southeast of the country. Harvest will ramp up in the coming weeks. 

Rabobank analyst Vitor Pistoria told Reuters the frost struck during delicate seed development phase. He sees the wheat crop in a range of 27 million to 29 million tonnes, down from 30.4 million tonnes projected in August.

Australia produced 26 million tonnes of wheat in the 2023-24 season and 29.8 million tonnes on average over the past five seasons, according to Agriculture Ministry figures. 

Analysts also reduced their forecasts for Australia’s barley and canola production.