KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI, US – It’s almost impossible to overstate China’s impact on global grain markets. For several decades its huge population, booming economy and grain production limitations have led to a surge in grains and oilseeds imports.

In the 2023-24 marketing year, China ranked first in wheat, corn, sorghum and barley imports, according to data from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). It also ranked first, as it always does, in soybean imports by a wide margin, bringing in 111.5 million tonnes of the 177 million tonnes (63%) of soybeans traded globally. Since 2000, its combined imports of corn, wheat and soybeans have increased by 982% (13.5 million tonnes to 146.1 million)!

But with its population declining for the first time since the Great Famine in the early 1960s and a faltering economy influencing Chinese consumers’ food purchases, China’s long-term demand for imported grain is, at best, unclear.

The China Agricultural Monitoring and Early Warning System (CAMES) recently estimated China’s grain imports would decline by 30% from 2024 to 2033. That’s an eye-opening number and is at odds with the other projections, including the USDA’s 10-year forecast.

CAMES foresees sharp declines in imports for rice (down 29%), wheat (down 24%), corn (down 73%) and soybeans (down 20%) during that period. The USDA forecasts a slight decrease in wheat imports, slight increases in corn and rice intake, and a 33% increase in soybean imports. If the CAMES projection is anywhere close to accurate (I have my doubts), it would radically impact trade flows and spell trouble for global grain producers and traders.

But even the USDA’s more modest projections would represent a substantial downward shift compared to the last 20 years or so. While most analysts predict a long-term steady population decline in China, the state of its economy is more volatile, less predictable and possibly more of a short-term concern. But the population downturn alone would be enough to reduce China’s grains and oilseeds demand.

Another factor is China’s desire to become more self-sufficient. The CAMES report sees China’s grain output increasing by 11% over the next 10 years, while grain consumption is projected to rise by a modest 2.3%. Efforts to boost domestic grain production, including approving the cultivation of genetically modified corn varieties after years of being anti-GM, should, at least in theory, lead to less reliance on imports.

China’s massive grain stockpiles are also worth noting. China accounts for 20% of the global population, but the USDA in 2022 estimated that it possessed nearly 70% of the world’s corn reserves, 60% of its rice and 51% of its wheat. This astonishingly large stockpile, coupled with its leading position as a grain importer and the commitment to ramp up production, reflects one of China President Xi Jinping’s favorite sayings: “The Chinese people’s rice bowl must be firmly held in their own hands.”