SÃO PAULO, BRAZIL — Grain production in Brazil is estimated at 298.41 million tonnes for the 2023-24 marketing year, a drop of 21.4 million tonnes compared to the previous year, according to Conab, the country’s food supply and statistics agency. This would still be the second largest crop in the survey’s history.

In its 12th Grain Harvest Survey for 2023-24 released Sept. 12, Conab said the decrease is mainly due to a lack of regular rainfall at the start of planting, combined with low rainfall during part of the crop cycle in the states of Matopiba, São Paulo and Paraná, and excess moisture recorded in Rio Grande do Sul, especially during the first crop. The states of São Paulo and Paraná, in addition to Mato Grosso do Sul, also saw adverse weather conditions during the development of the second crop.

The sown area is estimated at 79.82 million hectares in 2023-24, an increase of 1.6% or 1.27 million hectares over 2022-23. The average productivity of the crops was 3,739 kilograms/hectare, down 8.2% from 4,072 kg/ha the previous year.

Among the crops affected by adverse weather, soybeans stand out with total production for 2023-24 estimated at 147.38 million tonnes, a reduction of 7.23 million tonnes, or 4.7%, compared to 2022-23. The decrease was attributed to a lack of rain and high temperatures in the areas sown between September and November in the Midwest, Southeast and Matopiba regions, which caused replanting and productivity losses, Conab noted.

“In Mato Grosso alone, the main oilseed producing state, the production was 39.34 million tonnes, a drop of 11.9% when compared to the first survey, or 15.7% when compared to the last harvest,” Conab said. “In Rio Grande do Sul, excessive rain also harmed the production of the oilseed.”

Corn suffered similar outcomes, with Conab estimating production of 115.72 million tonnes for 2023-24, a drop of 12% from 2022-23. During the first harvest, high temperatures and irregular rainfall in important producing regions such as Minas Gerais. In the second corn cycle, weather was more favorable in Mato Grosso and Goiás, but in Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo and Paraná, dry spells in March and April, combined with high temperatures and pest attacks, compromised production.

Conab estimates that 36 million tonnes of corn will be exported by Brazil between February 2024 and January 2025, 34% lower than that estimated for the 2022-23 harvest.

In 2023-24, the estimated production of rice is up 5.5% to 10.59 million tonnes, mainly due to a larger cultivated area.

Among the winter crops, planting already has been completed and a reduction of 9.8% in the planted area estimated when compared to the last harvest. For wheat, the main crop cultivated among Brazil’s winter cereals, an estimated 3.1 million hectares has been planted, a drop of nearly 12% compared to the previous year.