CANBERRA, AUSTRALIA — Australian winter crop production is forecast to increase by 17% to 55.2 million tonnes in the 2024-25 marketing year, according to a report from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) released earlier this month. If realized, it would be the fifth highest yearly output on record, ABARES noted.

Winter crop production has been revised up 7% compared to ABARES’ June 2024 report, reflecting improved production in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia, which is expected to more than offset reduced production in South Australia and Victoria.

The crop production forecast for all major winter crops represents an upwards revision from the June forecast:

• Wheat is forecast to increase by 23% to 31.8 million tonnes in 2024-25, 20% above the 10-year average.
• Barley is projected to increase by 13% to 12.2 million tonnes in 2024-25, 7% above the 10-year average.
• Canola is seen falling by 8% to 5.5 million tonnes in 2024-25, driven by a forecast year-on-year decrease in total area planted. Area planted, however, remains above the 10-year average resulting in expected canola production remaining 22% above the 10-year average.

Area planted to winter crops in 2024-25 is forecast to increase by 5% to 24 million hectares. This is slightly below the record highs of 2020-21 and 2021-22 but is 9% above the 10-year average. The increase is driven by a greater area planted to winter crops in New South Wales (up 17%) and Queensland (up 34%) owing to improved conditions in both states.