BANGKOK, THAILAND — Thailand’s milled rice production is projected to reach 20 million tonnes in marketing year 2024-25, up slightly from 19.7 million tonnes in 2023-24 in response to recent high farm-gate prices encouraging acreage expansion coupled with improved yields, while exports dip, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Thailand’s rice exports in 2023-24 and 2024-25 are projected to decline compared to 2022-23 levels amid the volatility of the Thai baht and stronger global competition, which likely will impact the price competitiveness of Thailand’s rice exports, the FAS said. Exports for 2023-24 are seen at 7.5 million tonnes in 2024-25, down from 8.2 million the previous year and 8.7 million in 2022-23.

Despite a strong export growth of Thai rice in the first half of 2023-24, exporters anticipate that rice exports in the second half of the year will face strong competition, especially from Vietnam and Cambodia. India also is expected to resume its rice exports in 2024, which will create more price competition, especially for white rice, which accounts for 51% of Thailand’s total rice exports.

“Thai rice exporters anticipate that Thailand’s market share of the global rice market will decline in 2024, amid promising export opportunities for fragrant rice, which is a premium grade rice with high selling prices,” the FAS said.