ASTANA, KAZAKHSTAN — A bumper crop is expected in Kazakhstan as near perfect weather is significantly increasing the outlook for the upcoming fall harvest, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Wheat production in 2024-25 is estimated at 15.8 million tonnes, up from 12.1 million tonnes in 2023-24. Exports are estimated at 10.5 million tonnes, up from 8.5 million tonnes.

However, a lack of demand from traditional markets like Iran, transit issues and barriers in China and Russia present active challenges to exports, the FAS said.

“Farmers are concerned that harvest pressure and international trade issues will lead to falling prices,” it said.

In response, the government of Kazakhstan plans another six-month ban on wheat imports due to competition from Russia.

Since Russia and Kazakhstan were part of the former Soviet Union, there are no scales on the road border between the two countries. It was easy for traders to underreport the amount of wheat shipments coming across the border, the FAS said. Farmers estimate the government lost $750 million to $800 million in revenue due to underreported weights in 2023.