BRUSSELS, BELGIUM – A decline in grain production, imports and exports is forecast for the European Union (EU) in marketing year 2024-25, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

The EU is projected to produce 267.3 million tonnes of grain, down more than 8 million tonnes from the previous forecast earlier this year, the FAS said, noting that the decline was “due to a combination of smaller area planted to grains and lower yields affecting all grains except for barley and oats.”

Declines are projected for some of the EU’s largest grain producers, such as France and Germany, which account respectively for 25% and 15% of total grain production in the EU. Excessive rains in those two countries pushed yields down, the report said.

The EU wheat crop is expected to decline by 6% from the previous year to 127.4 million tonnes, driven by sharply reduced output in France, the FAS said. The wet growing season impacted planting and is also expected to reduce yield, which is currently projected 13% lower than 2023-24 levels, it said.

FAS also revised its projection for the 2024-25 EU corn crop lower, from 64 million tonnes to 59.8 million.

“The improved outlooks foreseen for Germany, Spain and France could not compensate for production cuts in Romania, Poland, Italy, Bulgaria, Hungary and Czechia,” the FAS said. “Furthermore, the mid-July aggressive and long heat waves occurring the southeastern Member States have the potential to lead to a further dip in the corn production estimate.”

Due to the lower grain production projections, the FAS sees exports declining significantly in 2024-25 to 41.7 million tonnes, a 13% drop from the previous year. Total grain imports are also seen declining by more than 5 million tonnes year on year to 29.2 million tonnes, mostly due to “increased domestic availability in main importing countries.”

Also expected to decrease on a year-on-year basis are the EU’s ending stocks for all grains except oats and sorghum.