BRASILIA, BRAZIL — Corn production in Brazil is forecast to rise to 127 million tonnes in marketing year 2024-25, up 4% from the previous marketing year in which yields were hurt by the El Niño weather phenomenon in the country’s main producing regions, while wheat is also on the rebound, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul, a major agricultural producer, experienced heavy rainfall and flooding in late April and throughout May 2024, significantly affecting agricultural fields. The 2023-24 marketing year (March 2024 to February 2025) corn crop is expected to produce 122 million tonnes, down significantly from an estimated 135.5 million tonnes in 2022-23.

The country’s first-season corn harvest has been mostly completed, with nearly 75% of second-season corn already harvested by mid-July. There has been a decrease in the planted area for corn compared to the 2022-23 season. Optimal weather has been favoring the sowing of third-season corn, with most crops in the vegetative development and reproductive phases.

The FAS maintained its forecast for corn planted area for 2024-25 at 22 million hectares, 2.3% higher than the estimated harvested area for 2023-24, set at 21.5 million hectares. 

“The combination of elevated corn production, low trade rhythm, weakened international demand, and high storage deficit in Brazil has led producers to remain cautious about planting corn in the coming season,” the FAS said.

Brazil’s corn exports for 2024-25 are expected to dip to 46 million tonnes from 45 million tonnes the previous year, based on increased domestic consumption, especially by the corn ethanol industry. The FAS originally had forecast exports of 51 million tonnes in 2024-25.

Growing ethanol demand is expected to drive total corn consumption to 82 million tonnes in 2024-25, up 2 million tonnes.

“The National Corn Ethanol Union (UNEM) estimates that corn-based ethanol will make up 19% of the ethanol consumed in Brazil in 2023-24,” the FAS said. “It is also projected that Brazil will produce around 4 million tonnes of dried distillers grains (DDG) from corn ethanol in the 2024-25 harvest. In the 2023-24 season, 3.04 million tonnes of DDG, used for animal feed, were produced.”

Sowing for the 2024-25 wheat harvest is reaching the final stages throughout Brazil, with concerns over erratic weather conditions that have slowed down the planting rhythm compared to previous years. The planted area is expected to be reduced in relation to 2023-24, influenced by high production costs and low profitability.

The FAS forecasts wheat production at 9.6 million tonnes in 2024-25, up from 8.3 million tonnes the previous year marketing year but lagging the 10.55 million tonnes harvested in 2022-24. Area harvested for 2024-25 is seen at 3.25 million hectares, down from 3.35 million year on year.

With wheat consumption projected at 12.35 million tonnes in 2024-25, imports are expected to be 5.6 million tonnes. Argentina is by far the largest supplier of wheat to Brazil, shipping 2.6 million tonnes in the first six months of 2024.

“As there has been a notable reduction in the amount of high-quality wheat planted in Brazil, wheat is one of the primary commodities that typically require imports to meet internal consumer demands,” the FAS said.