MEXICO CITY, MEXICO — After a year of severe drought conditions, Mexico is expected to produce more corn, wheat, rice and sorghum in 2024-25 based on expectations for a gradual recovery to average precipitation, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Corn production is estimated at 25 million tonnes. Imports are forecast up 1% from the previous year due to forecast lower-than-average production and demand growth from the animal feed sector.

“Due to continued inflationary pressures and high tortilla prices, human consumption is forecast to remain stable,” the FAS said.

Wheat production is expected to increase 4% to 2.8 million tonnes. Imports are projected 10% higher at 5.7 million tonnes, the FAS said.

Nearly 70% of the wheat is coming from the United States, a drop from 90% in the previous market year. Russia and Canada have emerged as strong competitors, with Russian prices dropping due to tariff removals and Canada supplying a niche protein.

“Therefore, the United States lost market share for wheat despite its closer proximity and tariff advantage,” the FAS said.

Wheat exports are estimated at 600,000 tonnes, a 25% drop from 2023-24.

Milled rice production is estimated at 160,000 tonnes, an increase of 10% from the previous year. Milled rice imports are forecast at 840,000 tonnes, a drop of 2% from the 2023-24 estimate.

Sorghum production is estimated at 4.5 million tonnes, an increase of 10%

Imports are forecast down 17% to 50,000 tonnes based on estimated lower domestic demand from the animal feed sector.