LONDON, ENGLAND — Unseasonably wet and windy weather lowered 2023 yields and production levels for nearly all of the United Kingdom’s main cereal crops, and similar conditions are dampening prospects for 2024.  

The UK experienced its second wettest August through February since 1837, when records began, according to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB). A lower-than-usual winter area is expected with considerably lower winter crop yields, it said. 

The spring planted area is likely to be higher than normal, but at the end of March the AHDB said it was too early to estimate areas or yield potential. 

All main cereal crops saw production drop in 2023, according to the Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). Wheat harvest in 2023 was estimated at 14 million tonnes, a drop of 10% from 2022, while oat production fell 18% to 830,000 tonnes. Barley production was just under 7 million tonnes, a decline of 5.7%, while rapeseed production fell 11% to 1.2 million tonnes, Defra said. 

Agriculture in the UK is intensive, highly mechanized and efficient by European standards, but accounts for only 0.6% of the UK’s gross domestic product. The industry produces 58% of its food needs but is heavily reliant on imports to meet the demand of the UK consumer, said the International Trade Administration (ITA). 

In addition to the weather challenges, the UK is dealing with the fallout of Brexit, its official departure from the European Union in 2020. Leaving the EU led to changes in the UK’s agricultural production and trade policy. The UK has since signed Free Trade Agreements with Australia, New Zealand and the free trading bloc known as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. It is negotiating further agreements with Canada, the Gulf Cooperation Council and India. 

Crop production

The drop in wheat production to 14 million tonnes included a 5.1% drop in wheat area to 1.7 million hectares, Defra said, possibly due to farmers favoring barley and rapeseed, which both saw increases in 2023. Wheat yield also fell 5.2% to 8.1 tonnes per hectare. 

For 2024, the AHDB said UK wheat area is expected to decline 15% to 1.463 million hectares, the smallest area since 2020. 

“There is a clear intention to plant more spring wheat, but the persistence of wet weather means there is uncertainty if this can be done,” the AHDB said. “While the area of spring wheat is small in comparison to the total wheat area, any areas that can’t be planted would further reduce the total wheat area.”

The AHDB noted at the end of March that the national condition of wheat was considerably worse than usual, with just 34% rated in good-or-excellent condition. It said overall crop expectation for 2024 is low and how crops develop in the next month is key.

“Wheat regularly astounds on its ability to recover from poor winters; this year will be a major test of this ability,” the AHDB said. 

The drop in barley production in 2023 included a 9.9% decrease in spring barley to 3.8 million tonnes and a 0.2% decrease in winter barley to 3.2 million tonnes, Defra said. Planted areas increased for both, but yields fell 10% in spring and 4.5% in winter. 

Total barley area in 2024 is expected to increase 8% to 1.236 million hectares, with a sharp drop in winter areas offset by higher spring barley planting intentions, the AHDB said. Winter barley is estimated at 355,000 hectares, a 22% drop while spring plantings are forecast up 29%. 

Prospects are mixed with crops on free draining land heading through the growth stages quickly while crops on heavy wet clay soils are looking poor and sick, the AHDB said. 

Oats production in 2023 hit its lowest level since 2016, driven by decreases in both area (a drop of 5.1%) and yield (a drop of 13%), Defra said. Area in 2024 is estimated to increase 26% to 209,000 hectares, with a fall in winter plantings more than offset by a sharp rise in spring planting intentions, the AHDB said. 

Winter oats have fared better than most winter crops, but still only 37% of the crop is rated as good or excellent. Crop conditions do not point to stellar yields, the AHDB said. 

“…they probably have the best chance compared to wheat and barley of achieving reasonable yields being generally more resilient,” AHDB said. 

Rapeseed production fell in 2023, with a 7.2% increase in area not enough to offset the 17% decrease in yield, Defra said. Total area for 2024 is expected to drop 28%, reflecting the poor growing conditions in fall and winter. The estimate of 280,000 hectares would be the smallest area since 1984. 

Only 31% of the winter oilseed crop is rated as in good-or-excellent condition. Prospects for harvest are looking poor nationally, the AHDB said. 

Flour production

Wheat flour is an important part of the UK diet and is an ingredient in about one-third of all grocery products, according to UK Flour Millers. Wheat flour provides 20% of the energy and protein consumed in the UK and makes a significant contribution to vitamin and mineral intake. 

About 12 million loaves of bread, 2 million pizzas and 10 million cakes and biscuits are made in the UK every day, the association said. 

To meet that demand, the UK flour milling industry processes just under 6 million tonnes of wheat to produce nearly 5 million tonnes of flour per year. Flour millers used 87% domestically produced wheat in 2019-20, equaling the all-time high last seen in 2011. 

Wheat demand by flour millers is expected to be up slightly on 2022-23 levels, the AHDB said, as overall flour demand has remained stable. Slightly lower extraction rates at the beginning of the season also increased wheat usage overall, it said. 

“It is still expected that flour millers will use a higher proportion of imported wheat in 2023-24 than last season, due to a lack of available high-quality domestic supply,” the AHDB said. “Concerns over next season’s crop are also expected to contribute to a firm import pace for the remainder of the season.”

Given current crop conditions, wheat imports could soar to 2 million tonnes in 2023-24, according to the AHDB’s supply and demand estimates. It would be the highest level of imports since 2020-21. From July to January, wheat imports totaled 1.251 million tonnes, an increase of 55% on the year. Most of the imports are high protein milling wheat, with some feed wheat heading into Northern Ireland, the AHDB said. 

The flour milling industry has continued to consolidate with 32 companies operating 51 mills, according to UK Flour Millers. The four largest companies account for 65% of UK flour production. Smaller mills have developed niches that include pre-packed flours to those with specific uses for specialty bread. 

A majority of the flour produced in the UK, about 65%, is used for the manufacture of bread products while the remaining 35% is used in a range of products, including biscuits and cakes.

Ethanol demand

The ethanol sector is one of the most interesting dynamics in the UK’s food, seed and industrial sector, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture. The UK governments rollout of E10 fuel in September 2021 has spurred production. 

Vivergo, which processes wheat, started a phased reopening in 2021-22 while Ensus steadily has increased production and continues to switch back to processing mainly domestic feed quality wheat after using imported corn in 2020-21. 

Neither facility is running at full capacity and grain use is up year-over-year but is below previous forecasts. Total food, seed and industrial sector use is expected to increase 200,000 tonnes in 2023-24 driven by an increase in the ethanol sector, the FAS said. 

“With wheat prices now falling back, both plants are forecast to increase their grain usage in 2023-24, and Ensus to increase the proportion of wheat utilized,” the FAS said.