BELGRADE, SERBIA — Serbia is beginning the 2024-25 marketing year with over 1 million tonnes of wheat ending stocks due to exceptionally favorable crop yields coupled with low market prices, the second straight year of large stocks, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

In its April 30 Global Agricultural Information Network report, the FAS projected a 14% reduction in wheat planted area for 2024-25 at 625,000 hectares, with an expected production of 3.1 million tonnes. If realized, production would be below the 3.4 million tonnes harvested in 2023-24. The high ending stocks and good crop quality are expected to contribute to exports of up to 1.5 million tonnes.

“Additionally, farmers are holding back goods from the market in anticipation of higher prices, further contributing to the accumulation of ending stocks,” the FAS said. “Limited opportunities for river transportation and stiff competition from Ukrainian crops, which are available at lower prices, have also influenced this surplus.”

Serbia’s 2023-24 wheat domestic consumption is estimated at 2.2 millon tonnes. Per capita consumption of wheat is estimated at 180 kg, which is significantly higher than consumption levels in most European countries. This is mainly the result of diet trends and low income leading to increased consumption of bread and pasta, replacing meat, the FAS said.

Last spring, 2023-24 corn was planted on 905,000 hectares, almost the same as in the previous year. Due to good weather, Serbia had corn production in 2023-24 of 6.8 million tonnes, a significant increase of 2.2 million tonnes, or 44%, compared to 2022-23 when corn production was significantly damaged by the record summer drought.

This spring, corn was planted on 900,000 hectares in the first two weeks of April, and production is expected to reach about 6.9 million tonnes. Serbia will have sufficient corn for domestic use at about 4.4 million tonnes and about 2.5 million for exports in 2024-25.

“By the end of 2023-24, Serbia will likely export 2.6 million of corn worth over $620 million and regain its position as one of the leading European corn exporters,” the FAS said.