BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA — Argentina’s soybean production is expected to increase in 2024-25, with a larger planted second soy crop, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Production is estimated at 51 million tonnes, up 1.5 million tonnes from the previous harvest. Soybean planted acreage is forecast to increase to 17.8 million hectares with an increased second soy crop planting due to fears of a dry year and the potential threat of the chicharrita (leafhopper) in corn.

Increased soy acreage will come at the expense of wheat planting and first crop corn, FAS said. Wheat planting is expected to decrease due to low prices and low returns. Corn planting is expected to decrease for similar reason but also fueled by fear of the impact of the chicharrita to yields.

The FAS maintains a production estimate of 49.5 million tonnes for 2023-24, about 500,000 tonnes below the USDA official estimate. While overall it is looking like a good crop this year, FAS said the potential for a great year was stunted by the hot and dry spell in mid-January.

Crush and exports in 2024-24 are also expected to recover to 40 million tonnes and 7.3 million tonnes, respectively.

Feed and domestic consumption is forecast up slightly to 6.3 million tonnes with a return to normal production levels and the modest increase expected in the poultry industry in the next years.

Domestic soybean oil for biodiesel use is forecast up slightly to 2.1 million tonnes as increased crush creates more supply for domestic oil production and global edible oil supply constraints continue to ease, making biodiesel more competitive, FAS said.

Argentina is the largest exporter in the world of soy meal and oil with huge crush capacity and well-developed industry and export infrastructure, particularly along the Paraná River, FAS said.

The EU is once again expected to be the top market for Argentina’s soymeal exports followed by strong buyeing from Vietnam and Malaysia. Egypt became a large buyer last year, and industry sources expected these purchases to continue into the next year. The FAS forecasts Argentina’s soymeal exports up at 27 million tonnes in 2023-24 and 2024-25 with increase production and crush.