OTTAWA, QUEBEC, CANADA — Canada’s grain output in the upcoming marketing year is forecast to increase by nearly 5%, boosted mainly by a surge in wheat production, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

The FAS, which issued the Global Agricultural Information Network report on April 24, forecasts a 5.4% increase in Canadian total wheat production to 33.7 million tonnes in 2024-25, slightly higher than the five-year average. Overall grain production is seen increasing by 4.9% to 61.4 million tonnes compared to the drought-plagued 2023-24 harvest.

The most notable production increase among the various classes of wheat was in durum, where the FAS projects a 36% climb to 5.5 million tonnes on a 5% increase in planted area and a recovery in yields. Spring wheat output is expected to rise by 2% in 2024-25 to 25.2 million tonnes. 

With production rebounding, Canadian wheat imports are seen declining by 50,000 tonnes from 600,000 tonnes in 2023-24, which was the second largest intake on record, the report said. Conversely, wheat exports are seen increasing by 5% to 24.7 million tonnes.

Total grain exports are forecast to increase by 3.3% year-over-year, as the wheat outgo offsets lower corn, oat and barley exports.

Notably, corn imports are expected to decline by 30% “on the assumption of improved moisture levels in the Prairie Provinces, increase domestic forage supplies, and improved grazing.”