TOKYO, JAPAN — Import and crush of soybeans in Japan is projected to decline in favor of canola due to a more favorable crush margin in marketing years 2023-24 and 2024-25, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

In its April 3 Global Agricultural Information Network report, the FAS noted Japan is consequently expected to decrease domestic soybean meal production, leading to an increase in soybean meal imports. 

“Japan’s generally stable vegetable oil demand is the primary driver of oilseed consumption in the country,” the FAS said. “Two factors largely determine Japan’s consumption of soybeans and canola seeds for crushing: relative crush margin and vegetable oil consumption by Japanese consumers.”

While harvesting just 259,000 tonnes of soybeans, Japan will import 3 million tonnes of the oilseed in 2024-25, the FAS forecast, a slight increase over the 2.97 million tonnes in 2023-24. This compares to the estimated 3.33 million tonnes imported in 2022-23. 

Soybean crush is projected to be 2.28 million tonnes in 2024-25, up slightly from 2.26 million tonnes the previous year, but a drop from 2.6 million tonnes in 2022-23.

Rapeseed imports, meanwhile, are trending upward with a projection of 2.1 million tonnes in 2023-24 and 2024-25, up from the estimated 1.97 million tonnes in 2022-23. Rapeseed crush is seen reaching 2.1 million tonnes in 2023-24 and 2024-25, up from 1.97 million tonnes in 2022-23.

“The poor 2021-22 Canadian canola crop led Japanese crushers to increase soybean procurement,” the FAS said. “However, this procurement trend stopped around mid-2022-23 as canola seeds price came down relatively faster than soybean prices.”

Canada historically has supplied 95% to 97% of Japan’s canola, but recent bumper crops and higher oil extraction rates noted by Japanese crushers have helped Australia gain nearly 42% of the market.

Japanese oil crushers produce soybean meal and rapeseed meal as byproducts, supplying approximately half of soybean meal demand and all of rapeseed meal demand.