BEIJING, CHINA — Improved yields and a slightly larger planted area will boost China’s corn production in 2024-25 even as government policies encourage increased soy planted area and reduced corn area, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

In its Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report, released on April 2, the FAS forecast China to harvest 296 million tonnes of corn in 2024-25, a 2.4% increase over the previous marketing year. At 44.3 million hectares, corn planted area will be slightly larger as farmers favor the grain over soybeans due to higher profits from planting corn, despite government subsidies favoring soybeans.

Total corn consumption for the nation of 1.4 billion people is forecast at 318 million tonnes in 2024-25, up 13 million tonnes year-on-year.

Corn continues to grow as a proportion of grain feed rations, even as total feed and residual use is forecast to drop slightly from 283 million tonnes in 2023-24 to 282.5 million in 2024-25 on declining hog feed demand. Corn use in feed is projected to be 235 million tonnes in 2024-25, up 12% from 223 million the previous year and an estimated 220 million in 2022-23. 

To meet overall demand, corn imports are seen at 20 million tonnes in 2024-25, lower than the 2023-24 estimate of 23 million tonnes. Brazil has now become the top corn supplier since China received the first vessel of Brazilian corn in early January 2023.

Reducing imports and building food security remains a top priority for China, with a focus on improving crop yields. On Feb. 3, the State Council published the 2024 “No. 1 Document,” which provides broad guidance for resource allocation and development goals in China’s agricultural sector.

The document states that China will “facilitate and expedite the industrialization of biotech seed breeding with expanded area,” which indicates an expansion of genetically engineered (GE) pilot areas and moves China closer to fully commercializing GE seeds.

“Industry sources indicate the amount of acreage sown with GE corn seeds in 2023-24 is less than 1% of total area, but GE corn seed acreage could grow to 10-15% of total area by 2025-26 or 2026-27 if favorable conditions develop,” the FAS said.

China is the world’s largest wheat producer, and 2024-25 production is forecast to be 138 million tonnes, or 1% higher than the 136.5 million tonnes harvested in 2023-24 on improved yields and steady planted area. Better yields and high returns are incentivizing farmers to plant wheat despite rising input costs, the FAS noted. 

Flour mills use around 75% of harvested wheat for flour production each year. Due to lower corn prices reducing wheat substitution in feed, 2024-25 total wheat consumption is forecast at 146.5 million tonnes, 7 million tonnes lower than 2023-24. 

Also the world’s top producer of rice, China’s rough rice production is forecast to increase slightly due to larger planting area and yield. The FAS projects 207 million tonnes of rough production in 2024-25, up slightly from 206.6 million tonnes the previous year.