TUNIS, TUNISIA — Despite a dry start during planting, good winter rainfall and moderate temperatures are stretching wheat and barley production in Tunisia to well beyond average, according to the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

In its April 1 Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report, wheat production is forecast at 1.25 million tonnes in 2024-25, up significantly from just 441,000 tonnes in 2023-24 and in line with the 2022-23 estimate of 1.23 million tonnes. Wheat yields will remain dependent on April rainfall, which could improve yields by 10% to 20%, if favorable.

Total domestic consumption of wheat in 2024-25 is expected to slightly increase to 2.8 million tonnes from 2.7 million tonnes. This reflects the average population growth trend of approximately 2% for the North African nation of about 12.5 million people and government subsidies.

“Tunisia subsidizes wheat consumption, guaranteeing the entire population access to wheat flour, semolina and bread at prices below market rate,” the FAS said. “Bread prices are a sensitive issue, and as a result, wheat subsidies have remained unchanged despite the extreme burden that they place on the state budget.”

Wheat imports are forecast at 1.8 million tonnes for 2024-25 to cover demand and maintain stock levels, while the estimate for 2023-24 has been revised upward to 2.2 million tonnes on lower domestic production. 

Barley production is expected to reach 660,000 tonnes in 2024-25, a big jump from 89,000 tonnes the previous year and improved from the 2022-23 estimate of 460,000 tonnes. Wheat seed shortages and dry weather during planting season motivated some farmers to plant barley in place of wheat.