MEXICO CITY, MEXICO — Coming off a severe drought and sensing greater demand for white corn, optimistic producers in Mexico are expected to plant more area to corn, giving impetus to a harvest forecast of 25 million tonnes for 2024-25, according to the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

In its March 19 Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report, the FAS said the forecast, if realized, would be 7% higher than the estimated 23.3 million tonnes produced in 2023-24, though still less than the 28 million tonnes harvested in 2022-23.

“Optimism about a return to average rainfall and moisture levels after a year of exceptional drought is expected to incentivize farmers to increase their planted area,” the FAS said. “Likewise, a return to average rainfall would reduce damaged hectares, given that 78% of domestic corn production is rainfed.”

The FAS is forecasting harvested area for 2024-25 at 6.4 million hectares, up 5% year-on-year. Despite the expectation of a higher harvested area and production for 2024-25, planting levels are expected to be lower than the 10-year average while the country gradually recovers from exceptional drought conditions.

Corn imports in 2024-25 are pegged at 22 million tonnes, 5% higher than the previous year to meet increasing demand for starch and animal feed production as corn prices remain comparatively low year-on-year. Mexico is not a major corn exporter, and restrictions on genetically modified (GM) white corn imports are increasing demand for domestic non-GM white corn. 

Mexico increasingly has relied on corn imports, primarily yellow, to cover the growing domestic demand of the livestock and starch industries, set to reach an estimated 21 million tonnes, which is over 45% of total consumption in 2023-24. The United States supplied more than 85% of Mexico’s corn imports in 2023 due to geographic proximity, exportable supply, solid business relationships and supply chain logistics linking the US grain and Mexican livestock sectors.

Mexico is the world’s fifth largest animal feed producer. In 2023, according to industry sources, the country is estimated to have produced over 43 million tonnes of feed for domestic poultry, swine, cattle, dairy, pet food and aquaculture production. Over 50% of domestic animal feed includes corn.

Due to inflationary pressures and record-level tortilla prices, human consumption will remain stable, the FAS said, putting total consumption at 46.6 million tonnes in 2024-25. 

At 2.4 million tonnes, wheat production for 2024-25 is forecast 10% higher than the previous year. With increased demand being met by growing production, wheat imports are forecast unchanged from the previous year at 5.4 million tonnes.