LAGOS, NIGERIA — Due to rising insecurity in grain producing regions and higher input costs affecting planting decisions, corn and rice production in Nigeria is projected to decline in the 2024-25 marketing year, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

The “bandit” conflict in northwestern Nigeria, an ongoing dispute between the federal government and various gangs and ethnic militias, has caused some farmers to be displaced, forced to pay for protection and have their harvests taxed from extralegal actors, the report said. This is part of the reason the FAS forecasts corn production to decline by 8% in the upcoming marketing year to 11 million tonnes and rice output to decrease by 7% to 4.8 million tonnes.

Another factor hindering production of those crops is widespread inflation on items such as wholesale commodities, animal feed, food, fuel, energy and agricultural inputs, which has led to reduced planting intentions, the report noted.

The only major crop expected to buck this downward trend is wheat, with output forecast to increase by 5% in 2024-25 to 126,000 tonnes.

“This increase is attributed to renewed government interest in wheat production through the Wheat Dry Season Farming initiative under the National Agricultural Growth Scheme and Agro-Pocket Project, which allocated 40,000 hectares for wheat production in Jigawa state and 50% input subsidies to producers,” the FAS said.

Because of numerous economic challenges, including food inflation, grain consumption in Nigeria is projected to decline in 2024-25, with utilization of corn and wheat each projected to decrease by 9% to 11.5 million and 4.2 million tonnes, respectively, the report said.