BRASILIA, BRAZIL — Poor weather in Brazil’s key growing regions is expected to lower grain production to 295.6 million tonnes for the 2023-24 season, down 24.2 million tonnes (7.6%) from the previous year, according to a report from the food supply and statistics company CONAB.

In its sixth survey released March 12, CONAB said the drop in overall production reflects an expected yield reduction of 7.1% from 4.07 kilograms per hectare to 3.78 kg/ha on a projected 78.1 million hectares.

“From the beginning of the current harvest until mid-December, weather conditions were variable and unfavorable in the main producing regions,” CONAB said. “These climatic instabilities caused significant losses in crop productivity, especially soybeans, the main product cultivated during the period.” 

With harvest reaching nearly 48% of sown area at the start of March, soybeans could reach 146.9 million tonnes, a reduction of 5% over the previous harvest. Low rainfall and above-normal temperatures in the main producing regions were cited by CONAB for the drop, however, in places where the grain was sown later, rainfall aided crop development.

With the reduced outlook in soybean production, CONAB lowered its exports projection to 92.33 million tonnes from an estimated 94.16 million tonnes in its previous report. The imports forecast was raised from 200,000 tonnes to 800,000 tonnes. 

With soybean harvest well underway, the planting of second-crop corn is taking place in the main producing states, such as Mato Grosso and Paraná. Area planted to corn is expected to fall by 8.3% to an estimated 15.76 million hectares, CONAB said. 

Weather has favored the crop’s cultivation, except for part of Mato Grosso do Sul. The expectation is for 87.35 million tonnes of corn to be produced in the second harvest alone. The harvest of the first crop, for which 23.41 million tonnes are projected, already has reached nearly 33% of the planted area. Total production is estimated at 112.75 million tonnes.

For rice, the planted area of 1.55 million hectares (up 4.7%), is expected to produce 10.55 million tonnes. Sowing in the main producing areas in the country already has been completed, despite excessive rains and floods that occurred during planting and made operations unfeasible in some locations.