LONDON, ENGLAND — Wheat ending stocks in the United Kingdom are forecast to rise by 30% from the previous year due to lack of export competitiveness, according to a report released on Jan. 25 by the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB).

In its first estimates of exports and ending stocks for the 2023-24 season, the AHDB noted “the unusual situation of larger end of season stocks despite a smaller crop.” The current season’s wheat ending stocks are projected at 2.552 million tonnes, compared with 1.953 million at the end of 2022-23.

The AHDB said total wheat availability is higher than the previous estimate in November due to an increase in imports, which are now pegged at 1.725 million in 2023-24, up 300,000 tonnes from November’s estimate.

“The majority of imports this season are expected to be high protein milling wheat due to the lack of high-quality wheat available domestically,” the AHDB said. “Doubts over the 2024 crop following the wet autumn are also a factor.”

Domestic usage of wheat is forecast to rise year-on-year, though by less than previously predicted, the report said.

“This is because of lower-than-forecast actual data in recent months, plus some caution for the remainder of the season surrounding current lower ethanol prices,” the AHDB said.

Concerning exports, the AHDB said the current pricing relationship to European (and global markets) severely limits UK wheat export potential this season. So far this season (July-November), the UK has exported just 127,000 tonnes of wheat, 71% less than the same period in 2022-23. The AHDB forecasts 2023-24 exports at just 275,000 tonnes, the lowest since 2020-21 (209,000).