MADRID, SPAIN — Extreme weather conditions across the European Union (EU) has reduced grain production projections for marketing year 2023-24, although output is still anticipated to exceed 2022-23 levels, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Production for the 27 Member States of the EU has been revised 1.1 million tonnes lower from the FAS’ previous forecast at 269 million tonnes. However, that still would be an increase over the estimated crop of 267.6 million tonnes in 2022-23.

“The EU experienced extraordinary extreme weather conditions ranging from severe drought in Spain to abnormally warm and dry summer conditions in the EU’s eastern grain production areas (Bulgaria and Romania), as well as cooler temperatures combined with summer precipitation in large grain producing Member States such as France, Germany and Poland,” the FAS said.

The FAS also lowered its projection for EU grain consumption in the current marketing year. The 1.8-million-tonne downward revision puts consumption at 259.5 million tonnes. Lower demand in the feed and residual category are the main reason for the decline, the FAS said, with swine and cattle farmers dealing with shrinking production margins, increasing regulatory hurdles and animal health issues.

Grain imports and exports also are seen falling in 2023-24, the FAS said. Imports are forecast to decline by nearly 1 million tonnes from the previous year, with the Russia-Ukraine war continuing to impact trade.

“A lower import figure reflects an improved crop but also the continuation of the trade regime adopted by Ukraine’s border countries, namely Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Romania,” the FAS said. “Ukraine will remain a leading supplier due to its competitiveness and despite risks associated with the transit routes.”

EU grain exports in 2023-24 were revised downward by 4.2 million tonnes from the summer forecast to 44.2 million tonnes, as the lower exportable supply in major corn exporting countries, such as Bulgaria and Romania, was not offset by larger French exports, the FAS said. If realized, this year’s export total would 5% lower than a year ago.