NEW DELHI, INDIA — While El Niño remains a wild card for India, soybean production is expected to reach 12 million tonnes in marketing year 2023-24 (October to September), harvested from 12.8 million hectares, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

The FAS said its initial estimate of 11.9 million tonnes in its previous forecast accounted for the unpredictable rainfall linked to El Niño conditions during the soybean planting season for the 2023-24 crop. The current forecast still would be short of the 12.4 million tonnes harvested for 2022-23.

“Experts are predicting El Niño will have a more significant impact in India in 2024, which could affect a majority of the crops, including oilseeds,” the FAS said. “There is still a degree of uncertainty at this time, considering El Niño has not always led to a lack of monsoon in India.”

India’s soybean oil production for 2023-24 is 1.7 million tonnes, a slight decrease from 2022-23 but still a relatively high-level owing to consistent yields and total supply of oilseeds used for “crush-to-oil” over the last two years. 

As domestic feed and food demand is higher, Indian soybean oil exports are minimal. The import of edible oils in 2023-24 decreased from nearly 17 million tonnes in 2022-23 to 15 million tonnes in the current marketing year. The top three vegetable oil imports — palm, soybean, and sunflower seed — decreased by 6.5%, 15.4% and 6.9%, respectively, due to various geopolitical-economic dynamics and increased domestic production goals in India.

India’s soymeal production forecast for 2023-24 is 7.55 million tonnes, which is lower than 2022-23 of 8.28 million tonnes and accounts for the lower soybean oilseed production for the current marketing year. The current forecast is still significantly higher than the 6.8 million tonnes produced in 2021-22.