ROME, ITALY — Better wheat production prospects boosted the United Nations’ Food and Agricultural Organization’s latest forecast for global cereal production to 2.819 billion tonnes.

Wheat production was revised upward by 3.7 million tonnes in September to 785 million tonnes. The increase was almost entirely based on more positive yield results from Russia and Ukraine compared to earlier expectations, the FAO said.

This offsets a steep cut to Canada’s wheat output forecast due to extensive dry weather in key producing areas. Wheat production forecasts for Argentina and Kazakhstan also were scaled back as prolonged dry and hot weather has degraded crop conditions.

The FAO’s latest forecast for global coarse grains production for 2023 has remained virtually unchanged at 1.511 million tonnes; however, it represents a 2.7% (39.2 million tonnes) increase from the previous year.

Global corn (maize) production increased slightly in September due to improved prospects in Brazil.

“Brazil is experiencing conducive overall weather conditions this year, underpinning the excellent prospects, with production seen reaching a record high in 2023,” the FAO said.

Somewhat lower-than-previously-anticipated plantings have trimmed rice production prospects for Bangladesh, Nigeria and the Philippines since September. However, these revisions were largely offset by upgrades for the United States, where officials report that an even more pronounced area rebound took place this season, and for Cote d’Ivoire, where planting expansions coupled with generally conducive growing conditions look set to translate into a record harvest.

World rice production is estimated at 523.1 million tonnes (milled basis), essentially unchanged from the September forecast and implying a 1% annual increase.

World cereal utilization is forecast at 2.804 billion tonnes, still 0.8% (21.8 million tonnes) higher than in 2022-23 despite a 3.1-million-tonne downward revision this month.

World cereal stocks are expected to reach a record high of 884 million tonnes at the close of the 2024 season, with a stocks-to-use ratio for total cereals projected at 30.8%.

World cereal trade was unchanged at 466 million tonnes from the previous month and pointing to a contraction of 1.7% from 2022-23.

World wheat exports are expected to decrease by 3.5% with a forecast of 193 million tonnes. Higher exports from Russia will offset downward revisions to exports from Australia and Canada.